UK Economics Weekly The implications of more public investment A big increase in public investment in the Budget on 30th October would push up demand before any rise in supply is felt. That could mean over the next year or two inflation is a bit higher than... 27th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Jul.) Although the rise in GDP in July was stronger than expected, the preliminary estimate of unchanged GDP in August suggests that the momentum was short lived and puts third-quarter growth on track to... 27th September 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Aug) As we calculated based on the earlier price data releases, the core PCE deflator increased by a muted 0.13% m/m in August, with the headline deflator up by 0.09% m/m. Admittedly, although the monthly... 27th September 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Ishiba victory will be greeted with relief by BoJ While Sanae Takaichi's defeat in this week's LDP leadership elections means that Japan won't have its first female Prime Minister after all, Shigeru Ishiba's victory will almost certainly be welcome... 27th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to start easing policy from next February Although the RBA predictably left rates on hold at its meeting this week, it did soften its hawkish bias a touch. And with the latest CPI data pointing to a noticeable slowdown in underlying inflation... 27th September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to ease further We think labour market conditions continued to ease in September, with a 100,000 rise in non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate edging up to 4.3%. 26th September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response GDP (Q2 3rd Est. & Annual Revision) & Durable Goods (Aug) At first glance the annual revision to the national accounts doesn’t appear to have had much of an impact – with second-quarter GDP growth left unchanged at 3.0% and core PCE inflation unchanged at 2... 26th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Don’t lose hope of AI’s economic potential This summer’s falls in the share prices of companies involved in producing AI chips have prompted some to question whether the AI revolution will be quite the game-changer it has been built up to be... 26th September 2024 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Innovation clusters to drive flex R&D performance The flex industrial subsector outperformed most other property types over the last cycle. Its underlying characteristics mean demand and returns will continue to be healthy ahead, though the winning... 25th September 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (Aug. 2024) New home sales dropped back slightly in August, which always seemed likely after the 10% surge in transactions the month before, driven by pent-up buyers responding to lower borrowing costs. Still... 25th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Weak growth to prompt more aggressive loosening With the inflation battle all but won, weak GDP growth will force the Bank of Canada into more aggressive action, with a couple of 50bp interest rate cuts to end this year. We expect the Bank to adopt... 25th September 2024 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA has less room to cut rates than the RBNZ A tight labour market and elevated public demand will keep the RBA from loosening policy before early-2025. Moreover, we expect the forthcoming easing cycle to be short-lived by past standards. By... 25th September 2024 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Aug. 2024) The Reserve Bank of Australia will look past the sharp fall in headline inflation in August, given that the plunge was driven in large part government energy rebates. That said, the fact that... 25th September 2024 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Sellers lose grip on the market Increased supply and weak demand are both contributing to the slowdown in house price growth. The recent sharp drop in mortgage rates should cause the market to retighten, but it will take time for... 24th September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jul. 2024) Another muted 0.2% rise in house prices in July adds to the sense that the housing market is cooling amid weak buyer demand and growing supply. As price growth continues to moderate quickly with no... 24th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will only cut rates in first half of next year The RBA didn’t discuss a rate hike at today’s meeting for the first time since March but reiterated its pledge that it won’t cut interest rates “in the near-term”. While the risks are starting to tilt... 24th September 2024 · 3 mins read
