We expect inflation to fall more rapidly than the Fed anticipates, albeit partly because the even-bigger surge in interest rates will send the economy into a mild recession early next year and drive up the unemployment rate. As a result, we also expect the Fed to be in position to cut interest rates again from late 2023, which should trigger a rebound in GDP growth in 2024.
Note: We’ll be discussing the key takeaways from this report in an online session shortly after the release of September CPI at 11:00 ET/16:00 BST on Thursday, 13th October. Register here to join.
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