US Commercial Property Update

NCREIF Q4 Index - Gap between US CRE appraisals and sales prices to close in 2025

The Q4 data suggest that appraisals are lagging the market correction, with transaction-based cap rates still significantly above those reported in the indices. Our expectation that this gap closes in...

27th January 2025 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Outlook

Sales slump to drag into 2025

The potentially inflationary policy mix of the incoming Trump administration will limit the decline in mortgage rates this year, squashing hopes for a major recovery in home sales. We expect...

8th January 2025 · 14 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Five key calls for US commercial real estate in 2025

Though we think the market has bottomed, we expect a very weak recovery this year, unlike in other cycles. In fact, we think valuation falls still have further to go, leaving our forecasts generally...

7th January 2025 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Dec. 2024)

The sharp rise in transactions in October and the acceleration in house price growth in November suggest some relief rally or pent-up demand after the Budget is more than offsetting the recent rises...

17th December 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Update

No holiday cheer for CRE debt

Our expectation of rising evidence of distressed assets in 2024 has come to bear, but we think more is still to come over the next couple of years. Some of that will stem from matured loans requiring...

5th December 2024 · 6 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

Our new forecast that Bank Rate will fall slower and not as far means that we now think mortgage rates will decline from 4.4% in October to 3.9% by the end of 2026, rather than to 3.5%. But we still...

20th November 2024 · 1 min read

Africa Economics Weekly

Kenya IMF loan, South Africa’s MTBPS, US election

South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) unveiled this week was positioned as a pro-growth budget, but the reality is that the government is sticking to a tight fiscal stance...

1st November 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Sep. 24)

Net lending to property totalled £1.33bn in September, essentially unchanged from the previous month.

29th October 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Update

‘Extend and pretend’ still ongoing for some banks

The NCREIF Q3 index posted a positive return for the first time in two years, with only offices recording a negative outturn. But with firmer evidence that poorly capitalized banks have been less...

28th October 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Outlook

Lower mortgage rates to gradually thaw frozen market

We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, dropping below 6% in 2026. Lower borrowing costs will breathe some life into the market, but stretched affordability and tight supply due to mortgage rate...

10th October 2024 · 14 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Sep. 2024)

We doubt the small fall in Nationwide house prices in August was the start of a renewed downturn. Surveys suggest the recent declines in mortgage rates have led to an increase in housing demand, while...

17th September 2024 · 1 min read

UK Housing Market Update

Recovery in mortgage lending has further to run

Granular data showed that mortgage lending continued to recover in Q2, supported by a decline in the average mortgage rate on new lending. Our view that mortgage rates will fall further next year...

10th September 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Jul. 24)

Net lending to commercial property was positive for the fourth consecutive month in July, albeit by a smaller £520mn. With development lending still negative, this was driven entirely by a rise in...

30th August 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi’s credit splurge a slow-burning risk

The rapid expansion of commercial bank lending in Saudi Arabia has raised the risk of an increase in non-performing loans and heightened the exposure of the banking sector to both the real estate...

20th August 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Aug. 2024)

Our UK Housing Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The recent drop in mortgage rates has caused house prices to rise a bit faster than expected...

15th August 2024 · 1 min read