UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Dec. 2024)

The sharp rise in transactions in October and the acceleration in house price growth in November suggest some relief rally or pent-up demand after the Budget is more than offsetting the recent rises...

17th December 2024 · 1 min read

UK Housing Market Update

RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov. 2024)

November’s RICS survey provides further evidence that housing activity and prices remained resilient to the rise in mortgage rates in November. And our view that mortgage rates will start to fall...

12th December 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Mortgage Applications (Nov. 2024)

The rebound in purchase mortgage applications in November shows that there were some signs of life in the market, despite the return of 7% mortgage rates. But taking a step back, activity remains...

4th December 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Chart Pack

US Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 24)

Conditions for would-be homebuyers and sellers will not improve much in the near term, with mortgage rates set to remain around 7% through the first half of next year, before modest relief arrives...

2nd December 2024 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Stretched affordability bodes poorly for housing cycle

Although Australian house prices edged up a notch in November, we remain sceptical about prospects for a second wind in the housing cycle. Given that the RBA is unlikely to provide interest-rate...

2nd December 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

New Home Sales (Oct. 2024)

The large fall in new home sales in October was to be expected given the disruption from hurricanes Helene and Milton, as well as the rise in mortgage rates last month. While sales should rebound this...

26th November 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Existing Home Sales (Oct. 2024)

The modest rise in existing home sales in October reflects the earlier drop in mortgage rates over the summer and is unlikely to be repeated, as borrowing costs have since rebounded to 7%.

21st November 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

Our new forecast that Bank Rate will fall slower and not as far means that we now think mortgage rates will decline from 4.4% in October to 3.9% by the end of 2026, rather than to 3.5%. But we still...

20th November 2024 · 1 min read

Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Nov. 2024)

Lower mortgage rates appear to be finally sparking a recovery in the housing market, with home sales soaring to a two-and-a-half-year high last month and the sales-to-new listing ratio now pointing to...

19th November 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Trump win puts brakes on housing recovery

While Trump has vowed to lower mortgage rates to 3%, we expect the net effect of his policies to have the opposite effect, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer. With that in mind, we are changing...

14th November 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Slower rate cuts won’t prevent solid house price gains

Our forecast that Bank Rate will fall slower means that we now think mortgage rates will decline from 4.4% now to 3.9% by the end of 2026, rather than to 3.5%. But we still think that mortgage rates...

14th November 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct. 2024)

October’s RICS survey points to robust house price growth but the Budget means that mortgages rates will probably fall a bit slower than we previously thought, which will restrain house prices next...

14th November 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Mortgage Applications (Oct. 2024)

Rising borrowing costs snuffed out the nascent recovery in mortgage activity in October, with home purchase and refinancing applications both slumping after a promising end to September. This puts to...

6th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.)

Australia’s housing rally continued to lose steam in October. However, with the RBA set to cut interest rates from early-2025, there are good reasons not to be too bearish on the outlook for house...

31st October 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Budget not a game-changer for the housing market

The policies announced in yesterday’s Budget won’t have a significant bearing on the housing market. But the prospect that interest rates are a bit higher may soften demand and creates some downside...

31st October 2024 · 5 mins read