Today’s GDP release, which confirmed that the economy has hardly grown at all since March, is a blow for the government given its pledge to secure the “highest sustained growth in the G7”. We still expect UK GDP to rise by 1.8% in 2025 and by 1.7% in 2026. That would mean the UK goes from lagging the euro-zone in 2023, to leading it. But if the Chancellor is hoping the UK will soon top the G7 growth table, she is likely to be disappointed.
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