The 10% rise in the Ofgem utility price cap due to take effect on 1st October means that we now expect CPI inflation to rebound from 2.2% in July to 2.9% in November and not fall below 2.0% until June 2025. If the series of bumper public sector pay deals agreed by the government sets a benchmark for private sector firms, wage growth and services inflation could prove stickier too.
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