Despite the softer tone of the CPI inflation data for June released earlier today, we have raised our forecast for the peak in Bank Rate. Rather than rise from 5.00% currently to a peak of 5.25%, we now think Bank Rate will peak at 5.50%. That’s a bit lower than the peaks envisaged by the consensus (5.75%) and current market pricing (5.75-6.00%). The bigger difference is that we think Bank Rate will be cut faster and further than market pricing from the back end of 2024 and in 2025.
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