The labour market became less tight in May and there are some signs of momentum in wage growth slowing a bit. But with wage growth still well above the levels consistent with the 2% inflation target, this won’t ease the Bank of England’s inflation fears significantly. Our forecast is for the Bank to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in August, from 5.00% now to 5.25%, but we can’t rule out another 50bps hike. A lot will depend on June’s CPI inflation data released next Wednesday.
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