The fall in CPI inflation from 2.3% in April to 2.0% in May (BoE 1.9%, consensus 2.0%, CE 1.8%) probably won’t be enough to persuade the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 5.25% tomorrow. And with services inflation nudging down only slightly from 5.9% to 5.7%, this leaves our forecast that the Bank will cut rates for the first time in August looking a little shakier too.
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