UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Oct. 2024) The big rise in regular private sector pay growth in October will increase the Bank of England’s concerns about a resurgence in inflation despite the weak news on activity. 17th December 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Dec. 2024) Despite the composite PMI staying at 50.5 in December, at face value it’s consistent with the 0.1% q/q rise in real GDP in Q3 being followed by a 0.3%q/q contraction in Q4. Admittedly, we doubt the... 16th December 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Oct. 2024) The 0.1% m/m fall in GDP in October is the second such decline in a row and means there is every chance that the economy went backwards in Q4 as a whole. Talk of a recession still feels a bit... 13th December 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Oct. 2024) October’s money and lending figures suggest that Budget worries prompted households to become more cautious with their borrowing and saving. Moreover, November’s weak activity data suggest the tax... 29th November 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Nov. 2024) At face value, the fall in the composite PMI from 51.8 in October to 49.9 in November suggests that real GDP growth is contracting in the middle of Q4, following a muted expansion of 0.1% q/q in Q3... 22nd November 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Oct. 2024) The bigger-than-expected 0.7% m/m fall in retail sales in October (consensus forecast -0.3% m/m) suggests that households’ concerns about tax rises announced in the Budget on 30th October contributed... 22nd November 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Oct. 2024) October’s disappointing public finances figures underline the fiscal challenge that the Chancellor still faces, despite the big increases in spending and taxes announced in the Budget. And while the... 21st November 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Oct. 2024) October’s surprisingly large rebound in CPI inflation from 1.7% to 2.3% (CE 2.1%, consensus & BoE 2.2%) won’t stop the Bank of England from cutting interest rates further. But it lends some support to... 20th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2025 policy outlook 1734620400 Join our senior economists for this dive into the final Fed, ECB and Bank of England decisions of 2024, and a look-ahead to see how these banks will calibrate monetary policy
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Sep. & Q3 2024) The 0.1% m/m contraction in GDP in September meant that the economy still grew by 0.1% q/q in Q3 (consensus and CE forecasts 0.2% q/q), but at a snail’s pace. However, this doesn’t mean the UK is on... 15th November 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Sep. 2024) Even though the rise in pay growth in September will probably be followed by a bigger gain in October, as the new 5-6% public sector pay deals start, the easing in private sector regular pay growth... 12th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: Germany's political crisis – Macro and market consequences 1731510000 Could the collapse of Germany’s ruling ‘traffic light’ coalition open the way to more effective governance for Europe’s largest economy?
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (7th Nov. 2024) While cutting interest rates from 5.00% to 4.75% today, the Bank of England implied that the Budget means rates will continue to fall only gradually. We agree and due to the Budget (and not the US... 7th November 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Despite large rise in taxes, Budget still boosts economy This Budget is big, both in the way it defines the government’s plans and the money it raises and spends. The key point is that it loosens fiscal policy relative to previous plans and is therefore... 30th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Sep. 2024) Although consumer confidence has fallen ahead of the Budget, there is little evidence in September’s money and lending figures that Budget worries are having a big influence on households’ financial... 29th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Oct. 2024) The fall in October’s composite flash PMI to an 11-month low suggests that real GDP growth, after what is shaping up to be a 0.2% q/q rise in Q3, continued to slow to a crawl at the start of Q4. This... 24th October 2024 · 3 mins read
