UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Sep. & Q3 2024) The 0.1% m/m contraction in GDP in September meant that the economy still grew by 0.1% q/q in Q3 (consensus and CE forecasts 0.2% q/q), but at a snail’s pace. However, this doesn’t mean the UK is on... 15th November 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Sep. 2024) Even though the rise in pay growth in September will probably be followed by a bigger gain in October, as the new 5-6% public sector pay deals start, the easing in private sector regular pay growth... 12th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: Germany's political crisis – Macro and market consequences 1731510000 Could the collapse of Germany’s ruling ‘traffic light’ coalition open the way to more effective governance for Europe’s largest economy?
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (7th Nov. 2024) While cutting interest rates from 5.00% to 4.75% today, the Bank of England implied that the Budget means rates will continue to fall only gradually. We agree and due to the Budget (and not the US... 7th November 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Despite large rise in taxes, Budget still boosts economy This Budget is big, both in the way it defines the government’s plans and the money it raises and spends. The key point is that it loosens fiscal policy relative to previous plans and is therefore... 30th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Sep. 2024) Although consumer confidence has fallen ahead of the Budget, there is little evidence in September’s money and lending figures that Budget worries are having a big influence on households’ financial... 29th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Oct. 2024) The fall in October’s composite flash PMI to an 11-month low suggests that real GDP growth, after what is shaping up to be a 0.2% q/q rise in Q3, continued to slow to a crawl at the start of Q4. This... 24th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Sep. 2024) While it is too late for September’s disappointing public finances figures to influence the amount of headroom the OBR will hand the Chancellor in the Budget on 30th October, they do highlight the... 22nd October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Sep. 2024) September’s 0.3% m/m rise in retail sales volumes was stronger than expected (consensus forecast -0.3% m/m, CE -0.5% m/m) and suggests that while households may be concerned about possible tax rises... 18th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Sep. 2024) The surprisingly large drop in CPI inflation in September increases the chances that the Bank of England will speed up the pace of interest rate cuts by reducing rates by 25 basis points (bps) at both... 16th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Aug. 2024) The further fall in wage growth in August, together with signs that the labour market continued to loosen gradually, adds further support to the widespread expectation that the Bank of England will... 15th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Aug. 2024) The 0.2% m/m rise in GDP in August (consensus and Capital Economics 0.2%), which came on the back of the economy failing to grow at all in three of the previous four months, lends support to our view... 11th October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Aug. 2024) August’s money and lending data provide further evidence that the gradual improvement in credit demand and supply in response to the falls in lending rates is supporting the economy. But the Bank of... 30th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP & National Accounts (Q2 2024) Q2 GDP growth of 0.5% q/q was a bit weaker than the previous estimate of 0.6% q/q, but the ONS also confirmed today that due to revisions to previous years’ data the economy is now 2.9% bigger than... 30th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Sep. 2024) The fall in September’s composite flash PMI is probably not a sign that the economy is on the cusp of another downturn, but instead is further evidence that real GDP growth has slowed towards a more... 23rd September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Aug. 2024) August’s public finances figures continued the recent run of bad news on the fiscal position, with public borrowing on track to overshoot the OBR’s 2024/25 forecast of £87.2bn by £6.2bn. And although... 20th September 2024 · 3 mins read
