UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q4 2024 Final) & Retail Sales (Feb. 2025) Today’s deluge of data confirmed that the economy was weak even before the full effects of higher business taxes are felt and that a high household saving rate continues to restrain GDP growth... 28th March 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Fiscal Event (26th Mar. 2025) Despite saying the “world is changing”, the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, today just tinkered with fiscal policy. This left the impression that bigger changes lie ahead. Indeed, the pressure to raise... 26th March 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Feb. 2025) The dip in CPI inflation from 3.0% in January to 2.8% in February is a bit of a red herring as inflation will probably be back above 3.0% in April and around 3.5% by September. That and the risk of... 26th March 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Mar. 2025) With the downside risks on activity shrinking and high price pressures being sustained, the Bank of England is probably becoming increasingly likely to pause interest rate cuts. 24th March 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Feb. 2025) Although it will have no impact on the fiscal update next week, the significant overshoot in borrowing in February highlights the Chancellor’s tight fiscal backdrop. The Office for Budget... 21st March 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (20th Mar. 2025) For an updated and more detailed version of this analysis, click here. The Bank of England was always going to continue its cut-hold-cut-hold pattern by leaving interest rates at 4.50% today but, in... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jan. 2025) With the labour market cooling rather than collapsing and wage growth stuck in the 5.5-6.0% range, we doubt the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 4.50% today. The next cut will probably be... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jan. 2025) The 0.1% m/m fall in real GDP in January (consensus +0.1%, CE -0.2%) highlights the weakness of the economy before the full effects of the rise in business taxes and the uncertain global backdrop is... 14th March 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jan. 2025) The stagnating economy is partly because households appear to be continuing to save rather than spend, which is unlikely to change over the next six months with the sharp deterioration in the outlook... 3rd March 2025 · 3 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Spring Fiscal Forecast reaction – Macro and market implications of Reeves’ statement 1743001200 Our senior economists hosted this special online briefing shortly after Rachel Reeves delivered her Spring Forecast, to answer client questions about the macro a
Event UK Drop-In: Spring Fiscal Forecast preview – More tax or less spend? 1741791600 A combination of weaker UK growth, higher yields and more defence spending make for a difficult Spring Fiscal Forecast for Rachel Reeves.
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Feb. 2025) The composite activity PMI was unchanged in February, which is consistent with the economy moving sideways in the middle of Q1, following a 0.1% q/q rise in Q4 of last year. (See Chart 1.) But more... 21st February 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jan. 2025) The leap in retail sales volumes in January shows that the retail sector shot out of the blocks at the start of the year. But some of that strength will have come at the expense of weakness in other... 21st February 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jan. 2025) While January’s disappointing public finances figures may not be as bad as they first appear, they continue the run of bad news for the Chancellor in 2025 and underline the difficult choices she faces... 21st February 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jan. 2025) CPI inflation took another step up from 2.5% in December to 3.0% in January (consensus, BoE, CE 2.8%) and will probably rise to around 3.5% in the second half of this year. We doubt this will prevent... 19th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response US-Russia talks don’t signal near-term end to the war The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the... 18th February 2025 · 2 mins read
