Tunisia’s staff-level agreement with the IMF for a new deal should reduce concerns of a messy balance of payments crisis, but a sovereign debt restructuring still looks likely. Egypt, meanwhile, looks set to secure a deal from the IMF “very soon”, and its balance sheet is altogether stronger than Tunisia’s. Elsewhere, the announcement of the Saudi Arabia National Industry Strategy adds to the raft of economic diversification plans, but reform progress in other key areas of the Vision 2030 plan is lacking. And finally, while OPEC+ cut oil output amid fears of reduced demand, our Commodities team’s analysis is that oil demand is relatively inelastic, which bodes well for the Gulf economies as we enter a global recession.
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