While Mexico avoided a 25% US import tariff on Monday with a last minute deal, the threat hasn’t gone away. Were a 25% tariff to come into force, that would tip the economy into recession. And the threat alone is likely to deter investment for the time being. Elsewhere, Argentina’s president committed this week to removing capital controls by the start of next year, but this won’t be a simple process. We suspect any move will wait until after October’s mid-term elections and will probably be gradual.
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