Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
The latest data suggest that activity in Europe picked up at the start of this year, and that the industry-driven recovery in China remains on track. Meanwhile, world trade edged up in February, and global industry looks to be in the early stages of a modest recovery. But the latest data haven’t altered our view that global growth will be slightly below trend in 2024. Consumer spending will probably remain subdued in Europe and weaken in the US, not least because consumer confidence is still historically low, and policy remains restrictive. Meanwhile, after a couple months of upside surprises, core CPI inflation fell in the US in April. We still expect inflation in DMs to be broadly back at central bank targets by the end of this year. In anticipation of this, we expect the ECB and Bank of England to begin cutting interest rates in June, followed by the Fed in September.
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