All eyes were on Washington this week as President Trump rung the bells for the next phase of a trade war with the EU and sidestepped European leaders with a possible Ukraine peace deal. While suggestions that the US will impose tariffs at a level that "matches" VAT in Europe should not be taken at face value, the uncertainties around our working assumption of a 10% universal tariff have certainly increased. Meanwhile, we think a peace deal in the Ukraine is still a long way off but any agreement may come with lower natural gas prices and increased defence expenditure.
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