The Hungarian central bank suggested that its decision to leave the policy rate on hold today, at 6.75%, was likely to mark a temporary pause in the easing cycle, rather than an end to it. Even so, we think the loosening cycle will be more “stop-start” from here, and our forecast for the policy rate to end 2025 at 5.00% is a more hawkish view than the consensus.
This publication has been updated with additional analysis since the post-meeting press statement and press conference.
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