Conflicting reports this week around OPEC+'s plan regarding unwinding its voluntary output cuts from April highlight the risks of yet another delay. While any delay would tighten the oil market at the margin, we doubt it would prevent oil prices from sinking further as it reflects weak fundamentals. Meanwhile, the early direction of travel in US-Russia negotiations around the war in Ukraine probably reduces some of the upside tail risks to oil prices, but isn't conducive to a meaningful recovery in natural gas trade between Russia and the EU.
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