Commodities Weekly

China policy support is not enough to lift prices

Despite announcements of stronger policy support from China, we do not think these will be enough to lift commodity prices amid growing structural headwinds to demand. With oil demand likely to...

13th December 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

OPEC+ delay won’t prevent oil price falls

The decision by OPEC+ to delay unwinding some of its oil production cuts until April 2025 appears to have provided food for thought to both oil bulls and bears. However, although the announced plans...

6th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Coffee price 🏒; OPEC+ in can-kicking mode

Fans of hockey-stick graphs would appreciate recent developments in the coffee market, where prices have surged by 30%+ this month on the back of poor growing weather in Brazil. History suggests that...

29th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Tariffs & re-routing commodity trade; natural gas soars

The election victory of Donald Trump and the prospect of renewed trade restrictions has naturally sharpened attention on the potential impact of tariffs on trade flows, including on commodity trade...

22nd November 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Initial thoughts on commodities and Trump tariffs

While it is uncertain exactly how Trump will approach tariffs during a second term, China will clearly be in the firing line and commodities could be caught in the crossfire. Iron and steel, and to a...

15th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Trump, OPEC, China – What’s driving oil prices in 2025?

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An oil market that has mostly looked through a year of Middle East conflict now faces fresh, Trump-shaped, uncertainty.

Commodities Weekly

Assessing the impacts of Trump and China stimulus

Despite his pledges to “drill, baby, drill” and dramatically raise tariffs on China, we suspect that the net impact of Trump’s policies on energy and industrial metals prices will probably be small...

8th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Commodity markets face trifecta of risks

The next few weeks promise to be eventful ones for commodity markets. Not only will there be a new US president, but we may finally get details on the size of China’s fiscal stimulus as well as...

1st November 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Trump trade comes for gold; palladium surges

Having behaved “normally” over the summer, gold prices have slipped back into anti-traditional-driver mode in recent weeks, seemingly caught up in a wider “Trump trade”. One can – and plenty surely...

25th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Oil risk premium shrinks; China leaves us guessing

The risk premium in oil prices collapsed this week after reports suggested that Israel would not target Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities in any retaliatory strike. With the fundamentals of weak oil...

18th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

All eyes on China again; Hurricane Milton fallout

While fiscal stimulus could provide some short-term support to metals prices, the key issue is that China's troubles are structural. So, China's metals demand probably won't be in a much healthier...

11th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Risks to oil supply take centre stage

With all eyes on the extent and focus of Israel’s retaliation against Iran, the risk premium is going to dominate near-term proceedings in the oil market; depending on how things pan out, prices could...

4th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

China stimulus a silver bullet for metals? Think again

The stimulus packages announced by Chinese policymakers were the main reason behind the chunky increases in industrial metals prices this week, and explain why they performed better than most other...

27th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

The Fed cuts, commodity prices rise but it won’t last

The Fed’s decision to cut interest rates by 50 bp gave most commodity prices a boost this week. We suspect that lower interest rates won’t have a sizeable impact on US commodity demand this quarter...

20th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Silver to stay in gold’s shadow, China trade takeaways

For all the attention on gold this year, silver has been the better performer with prices increasing by over 25% year-to-date. While silver has benefitted from the expansion in China's solar industry...

13th September 2024 · 4 mins read