The key risk for Canada’s economy from the US presidential election is that a Trump administration could pull out of the USMCA, leaving Canada subject to any US import tariffs. To avoid that, Canada may have to grant concessions such as increased market access to US firms. A higher dose of foreign competition would at least be positive for the economy in the long run, while a Trump administration – together with a potential future Conservative government – would be more favourable for the energy sector.
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