Canada Economics Update What is behind the slumping participation rate? The slump in the participation rate this year at least partly reflects the cyclical weakness of hiring, which means that the labour market is weaker than the unemployment rate alone might suggest. The... 20th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Nov. 2024) Lower mortgage rates appear to be finally sparking a recovery in the housing market, with home sales soaring to a two-and-a-half-year high last month and the sales-to-new listing ratio now pointing to... 19th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Population decline will drag down GDP growth The government’s new immigration plan implies that the population will decline by 0.2% in both 2025 and 2026, a huge shift from population growth of almost 3% over the past two years. That means GDP... 24th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Will the Bank follow its 50bp cut with another? The weak economic backdrop means we still see a strong case for the Bank of Canada to follow its larger 50bp cut today, which took the policy rate to 3.75%, with another 50bp cut at the next meeting... 23rd October 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Oct. 2024) Lower mortgage rates have provided a small boost to demand but, with new listings outpacing sales again in September, the sales-to-new listing ratio suggests that house prices will soon fall... 16th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys imply GDP growth will remain weak The key activity and labour market indicators in the Bank of Canada’s surveys did not deteriorate last quarter, but they remain consistent with weak GDP growth, rather than the pick-up the Bank is... 11th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Will the Bank be ready to cut by 50bp this month? With the inflation battle seemingly won, the Bank of Canada has indicated that it is prepared to cut interest rates more quickly if warranted, with that decision hinging on developments in business... 8th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Sep. 2024) Increased supply and weaker demand are pushing down rents in several cities. That raises the risk of another leg down for apartment prices, despite the recent drop in mortgage rates. 17th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Manufacturing Sales (Jul. 2024) The 0.9% m/m rise in manufacturing sales volumes in July implies there are upside risks to the flash estimate that total GDP was unchanged at the start of the third quarter, although the negative tone... 16th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update What happened to the boost from Trans Mountain? There was little impact on GDP from the completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion because the jump in exports was supported by a drawdown of inventories from elevated levels, rather than... 11th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank puts up high bar for 50bp cut Following its third consecutive 25bp interest rate cut today, the communications from the Bank of Canada reiterated that further cuts are likely. We expect 25 bp cuts at the final two meetings this... 4th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Aug. 2024) Interest rate cuts have so far failed to stimulate the housing market, although the sharper drop in borrowing costs this month will lend more support. Regional divergences are growing, with Toronto... 16th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cycle In detailed analysis last year, we concluded that equilibrium nominal interest rates would settle at between 3% and 4% in advanced economies in the next ten years. We maintain that opinion and in fact... 30th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Loosening cycle continues, September cut looks likely Alongside its decision to cut interest rates today, the Bank of Canada struck a more dovish tone than in June, supporting our forecast that another cut is coming at the next meeting in September. 24th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Jul. 2024) Further interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada should breathe some life into the housing market in the coming months, but the dimmer outlook for rent growth and apartment prices present downside... 16th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank surveys show need for looser policy The Bank of Canada’s business and consumer surveys point to weak GDP growth, show that firms’ wage expectations are now lower than their pre-pandemic peak, and suggest that consumers are increasingly... 15th July 2024 · 3 mins read
