The key activity and labour market indicators in the Bank of Canada’s surveys did not deteriorate last quarter, but they remain consistent with weak GDP growth, rather than the pick-up the Bank is looking for. The weak results mean that, despite the earlier strong September Labour Force Survey release, market pricing has shifted back to implying that a 50bp cut is marginally more likely than another 25bp move later this month, although the CPI data next week could still swing things either way.
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