We agree with the widespread expectation that the 25 basis point (bps) cut in interest rates in August will be followed by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) leaving rates at 5.00% on Thursday 19th September. But we think rates will be cut a bit slower than investors expect over the coming months, although beyond that we think rates will be cut further than investors expect, to 3.00% rather than to 3.25-3.50%.
We’ll be discussing the outlook for Bank of England, ECB and Fed policy in a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm BST on Thursday 19th September. (Register here.)
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