Ethiopia’s sovereign default appears imminent after the government missed a coupon payment on its 2024 Eurobond this week. The prominence of Chinese and private bondholders in Africa continues to hamper restructuring negotiations with the G20 Common Framework desperately needing reform. Meanwhile, South Africa’s activity data for October suggested that the economy is on the brink of a technical recession. Tight monetary policy and intensifying logistical problems will act as headwinds, but we still expect growth to pick up in 2024. Finally, annual inflation in Ghana eased again to 26.4% y/y last month, providing the central bank with further ammunition to start cutting rates.
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