US Housing Market Update What is the downside scenario for the housing market? The biggest risk facing the US housing market is that higher mortgage interest rates and tight credit conditions prevent a recovery in mortgage demand, meaning that mortgage-dependent buyers do not... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will mortgage demand recover this year? Mortgage demand is struggling to shake off the impact of last year’s jump in mortgage interest rates. But providing that the wider economic and labour market recovery remain on track, we see no reason... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is the growing market share of ARMs cause for concern? The growing take up of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) does not look like a long-term threat to the stability of the housing market. Even after recent gains, the size of the ARM market is small. And... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why is homebuilding so low in States with rapidly rising prices? The subdued level of homebuilding in Nevada, Arizona, California and Florida is primarily a legacy of the glut of cheap, distressed homes which flooded the market during the recession and crowded out... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will existing home sales follow new home sales upwards? The slump in existing home sales has set the recovery in housing market activity back by 12 months. But there are good reasons to think that, like the timelier new home sales series, the decline in... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Foreclosure overhang weighing on New York and New Jersey The rise in the foreclosure inventory in New York and New Jersey in the third quarter provides one more reason to think that housing market prospects in these two States are relatively weak. 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Has the outlook for existing home sales changed? The drop in the pending home sales numbers for September suggests that the immediate outlook for existing home sales is weak. We have therefore revised down our whole-year forecasts for 2013. The... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is homebuilder confidence set for a weaker period? Homebuilder confidence may be on the verge of a weaker period. The good news is that previous rapid run-ups and subsequent moderations in homebuilder confidence have dampened, but not derailed... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How serious is the threat to housing from the shutdown? The Federal shutdown is so far proving to be an inconvenience, rather than a show stopper, for the housing market recovery. But the shutdown may become more problematic if the deadline for raising the... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update New home prices set to slow by more than existing home prices House price growth for new-build homes is set to slow more quickly than price growth for the existing housing stock over the next year, cutting into the price premium attached to a new home. 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update QRM proposals are a step towards looser mortgage credit The proposed Qualified Residential Mortgage rule is a welcome simplification and relaxation of earlier proposals which, if enacted, will help to loosen mortgage credit conditions. But the inclusion of... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will MBS be tapered first or last and does it matter for housing? Although the Fed may opt for the simplicity of running down purchases of both Treasuries and MBS simultaneously, we think that it makes sense to leave tapering of MBS purchases for last. That said... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are house prices increasing by less than the indices suggest? The decline in the share of distressed sales is having an upward influence on house prices. But we aren’t convinced by claims that the house price indices’ failure to adjust for this effect is somehow... 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed likely to begin QE taper in September There is nothing in the latest FOMC statement released today to suggest that Fed officials have changed their minds about starting to taper the monthly asset purchases in September. 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update New York City house price growth may slow Helped by attractive jumbo mortgage rates and interest from foreign buyers, house price growth in New York City is well above the national average rate. But we stand by our call that price growth in... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Easing cost pressures a further boost to homebuilders The 25% fall in lumber prices in the past two months is helping to relieve cost pressures on homebuilders. Combined with surging homebuilder confidence, it looks like housing starts are set to rise... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
