US Housing Market Update Foreign buyers peripheral to housing recovery A couple of years ago, a lot was being made of the potential for foreign buyers to come to the rescue of the housing market. We were dubious of these claims at the time, and a recent NAR survey seems... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Higher mortgage rates here to stay In light of the changing prospects for US monetary policy, we have revised our 10-year Treasury yield forecasts higher. Accordingly, recent gains in 30-year mortgage rates are unlikely to be unwound... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The pace of house price gains is set to slow We expect the pace of house price gains to slow later this year and decelerate further in 2014. This will not signal the end of the US housing recovery, but a new phase in which house price growth is... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed likely to begin QE taper in September In most advanced western economies the supply of labour is likely to be boosted by a rise in labour market participation during the coming year or two. This should help to prevent wage inflation... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How concerned should we be about higher mortgage rates? The rise in mortgage interest rates has the potential to generate a hiatus in housing sales and starts over the summer. At the margins, the rise also adds to the case for expecting the housing... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are inventory levels starting to normalise? The return of double-digit rates of house price inflation has grabbed most of the headlines in recent days. But equally significant are signs that sellers are returning to the market in force. We... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are mortgage credit conditions loosening? Mortgage-dependent buyers have been unable to play the sort of role in this housing recovery that they have in previous cycles because mortgage credit conditions have remained tighter for longer. But... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Homeownership rate likely to fall further yet Tight credit conditions and the backlog of foreclosures still to be worked through mean that the homeownership rate will slide lower over the next year or so. But with owner-occupation still the... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed appears less inclined to curb QE anytime soon The Fed's assessment of the economic outlook didn't change much in the statement issued today, but the FOMC nevertheless felt it necessary to flag up explicitly that the pace of asset purchases could... 1st May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Talk of a US housing bubble is premature We place significant emphasis on valuations in our analysis of residential property markets. So we cannot take issue with those who have recently pointed out that house price gains which are twice the... 12th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Lower yields will undermine investment case - but not this year House prices are rising at a quicker pace than rents, which is weighing on rental yields. But the reduction in yields is currently very gradual, while the total return from housing remains attractive... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed sticks with its QE plans for now The Fed acknowledged in its statement today that the economy was again growing at a "moderate" pace and FOMC participants revised their forecasts for the unemployment rate slightly lower for 2014 and... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Return of housing equity withdrawal here to stay For the first time in four years households are withdrawing more cash from their homes than they are putting into them. Rather than being a temporary blip, we think that this marks the start of a... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Lenders' capacity constraints still a brake on recovery Capacity constraints in lenders’ mortgage departments are one of the few remaining bottlenecks in the housing recovery and one of the factors contributing to the marginal role being played by mortgage... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are house prices gains in some States unsustainable? Concerns have been raised that some States are seeing unsustainable, investor-fuelled house price increases. However, we think that in most of these markets, the fundamentals are supportive of a... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Should we be concerned that starts are outstripping sales? Housing starts have risen by 37% over the past year, but new home sales have only increased by 9%. Rather than being a sign that speculative overbuilding has returned however, this gap reflects the... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
