US Housing Market Update Forbearance not a path to foreclosure The surge in mortgage borrowers seeking forbearance stands in contrast to a more modest rise in missed rental payments and suggests many have requested mortgage holidays as an insurance policy, rather... 7th May 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update COVID to halt rise in homeownership Strong new home sales in 2019 helped the under-35 homeownership rate jump to a nine-year high in the first quarter. But, with the disruption from COVID set to cut home sales in half in the second... 30th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Are HELOC draws set to surge? Uptake of home equity lines of credit surged during the financial crisis, as households made use of existing facilities to replace lost income. But, even as the unemployment rate reaches a record high... 29th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update House prices to fall, but not crash Unlike in previous downturns, residential property has not been the root cause this time. Even so, house prices will not escape this recession unscathed. If policy support proves effective, if... 29th April 2020 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Government support will prevent surge in rent arrears Jobless claims have reached 26 million, but by the end of last week the share of apartment tenants making a full or partial rental payment in April was down by just four percentage points compared to... 24th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Early data indicate big, but short-lived, housing impact The largest fall in new home buyer traffic on record in April supports our below-consensus call for a 50% q/q drop in new home sales in the second quarter. But the share of households seeing now as a... 17th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Residential REITs not pointing to house price crash The 27% drop in the price of residential REITs since late February is not a sign that house prices are set for a significant fall. The past relationship with house prices has been poor and on an... 9th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Housing starts to suffer permanent loss from COVID Single-family housing starts were in a strong position prior to the arrival of the coronavirus and builders would, in normal circumstances, look through what is anticipated to be a temporary dip in... 2nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update House prices to fall by 4% The collapse in home sales, and hit to households’ income and savings, means house prices will fall back. But lender forbearance and the fiscal package will prevent a surge in forced sellers, and with... 27th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Fiscal package will prevent record high delinquencies A surge in the unemployment rate to 12% in the second quarter will put upward pressure on the mortgage delinquency rate, but an additional $600 week in unemployment insurance should keep the rate... 25th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Home sales to fall by 35% Increasingly restrictive measures on people’s movement, and an imminent surge in unemployment, means we expect total home sales will drop by around 35% in the second quarter compared to the end of... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Will Fed action bring down mortgage rates? The Fed promise to buy at least $200bn of MBS will support liquidity in the market and put some downward pressure on mortgage interest rates. But mortgage rates are also being pushed higher by lender... 17th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Buyer traffic will give first clue on COVID-19 impact Any disruption the coronavirus has on housing market activity won’t be evident in the home sales data until late April at the earliest. But other metrics can give an earlier indication of the... 12th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Rapid refinancing cuts the cash-out share A sharp reduction in mortgage interest rates over 2019 increased the benefit of refinancing for recent borrowers, and as a result the median age of refinanced mortgages dropped to just two years in... 3rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Mortgage rates unlikely to hit record lows A flight to safety and belief that the Fed will cut rates have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to record lows. But we doubt the 30-year mortgage rate will follow suit. Stretched lender capacity and... 25th February 2020 · 3 mins read
