US Housing Market Update Home sales to fall by 35% Increasingly restrictive measures on people’s movement, and an imminent surge in unemployment, means we expect total home sales will drop by around 35% in the second quarter compared to the end of... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Will Fed action bring down mortgage rates? The Fed promise to buy at least $200bn of MBS will support liquidity in the market and put some downward pressure on mortgage interest rates. But mortgage rates are also being pushed higher by lender... 17th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Buyer traffic will give first clue on COVID-19 impact Any disruption the coronavirus has on housing market activity won’t be evident in the home sales data until late April at the earliest. But other metrics can give an earlier indication of the... 12th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Rapid refinancing cuts the cash-out share A sharp reduction in mortgage interest rates over 2019 increased the benefit of refinancing for recent borrowers, and as a result the median age of refinanced mortgages dropped to just two years in... 3rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Mortgage rates unlikely to hit record lows A flight to safety and belief that the Fed will cut rates have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to record lows. But we doubt the 30-year mortgage rate will follow suit. Stretched lender capacity and... 25th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Apartment rent growth to benefit from home shortage Rental growth of 3.5% to 4.5% y/y over the next five years is the key reason why we expect apartments will outperform other commercial property sectors. Stretched home valuations, tightening mortgage... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Could the coronavirus derail the housing market? The coronavirus is contained in the US, and with Chinese construction imports and non-resident buyers too small to have a meaningful impact, the housing market has so far escaped the virus largely... 12th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Encouraging rise in vacant homes being repaired A rise in the number of vacant homes being repaired is an indication that some owners of empty properties are planning to put them up for sale. That may provide some relief to a tight housing market... 4th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Stretched valuations to keep lid on house price growth While not at dangerous levels, the house price-to-earnings ratio does suggest home valuations are stretched. With mortgage interest rates unlikely to fall much further, and limited prospect for a... 31st January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Constraints on homebuilding beginning to ease There are encouraging signs that the cost and availability of materials, lots and labour are all starting to improve. Coupled with strong new home demand, and a shift toward the construction of... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Key calls for 2020 A lack of homes for sale means forecasters agree that existing home sales will just tread water over 2020. But we are more optimistic than others on the outlook for new home sales and single-family... 21st January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Debt-to-income ratio key for house price outlook With mortgage rates set for a period of stability over the next couple of years changes in credit conditions, and in particular debt-to-income ratios, will be an important driver of house prices... 10th January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Refinancing demand set for another strong year With mortgage rates set to remain close to their current low level over the next couple of years, refinancing activity will be strong in 2020. Tighter credit conditions will constrain demand to some... 3rd December 2019 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Mortgage rates to stay close to 4% over next two years We now expect mortgage interest rates to stay close to their current level over the next couple of years. That will give some support to housing demand but, as was the case this year, offsetting... 25th November 2019 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Builders begin slow move back to starter homes Tight supply of affordable homes, and a relatively large increase in their price, are encouraging builders back to the starter home sector. But a slowing economy and tighter credit conditions rule out... 14th November 2019 · 3 mins read
