US Housing Market Update High unemployment to benefit homebuilders An elevated unemployment rate, alongside some relaxation in immigration restrictions, will help ease labour shortages in the residential sector this year. Admittedly, not all parts of the economy are... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Haus launches a new house price index As it is based on asking prices, the recently launched Common Haus Price Index (CHPI) could lead other house price indices by 1-2 months, which would make it a useful tool for forecasting short-term... 8th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update The future for city property In our Future of Property research, we identified important post-pandemic shifts in most real estate sectors. How these trends interact will be key to the outlook for the urban locations where most... 4th February 2021 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Update Homeownership rate to hold steady in 2021 An improvement in the share of in-person interviews in the fourth quarter HVS survey helped bring the homeownership rate back down from its recent implausible highs. And, with home sales set to slow... 4th February 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update How big might the foreclosure wave be? We estimate a backlog of around 850,000 foreclosures will have built-up if the ban is extended until the end of September, similar to the peak seen during the financial crisis. However, not all those... 27th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Narrowing spread will keep mortgage rates low With risk-free interest rates not set to drop any further, and home sales constrained by record low inventory, the cost of the prepayment option on MBS will have fallen. Alongside Fed purchases of MBS... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Key Calls for 2021 Compared to consensus, we are relatively downbeat on the outlook for home sales this year. Mortgage rates will stay close to record lows, but they will not fall further. Pent-up demand from last... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Pandemic will not be the death of cities The pandemic – and the associated increase in working from home – may cause a fundamental shift in the way that cities function in future. But this shift will not necessarily trigger a more... 5th January 2021 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Update NYC apartment vacancy rates well-placed to recover As the country begins to return normal next year, the hardest hit apartment markets in the country will recover. New York City looks particularly well-placed to benefit from returning non-office-based... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Early signs that exodus from cities is easing An important driver of the surge in home sales over recent months has been households leaving apartments in cities to escape COVID-19 and acquire more space to work from home. But a fall in the share... 7th December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Vaccine will not provide a quick fix for real estate News about a vaccine has boosted financial markets and we have revised up our global economic expectations for the next two years or so. But while we think that this bodes well for the medium term... 2nd December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Strong housing markets give recoveries a helping hand A striking development in the past few months is how well housing markets in developed markets have generally been doing. We expect this to peter out next year, although in most cases house price... 19th November 2020 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Update Fall in FTB share good news for future rental demand Rising rental vacancy rates in large cities have not been accompanied by a surge in first-time buyers (FTBs). Indeed, 2020 saw the lowest share of FTBs since 1987. That implies many of those rental... 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Demand for expensive homes surges Wealthy buyers seeking homes during the pandemic have driven the share of existing homes sold for over $500,000 to a record high. A lack of inventory has prevented a similar rise in the new home... 2nd November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Jump in asking rents points to move away from cities Despite issues with sampling due to COVID-19, the third quarter HVS survey did provide some interesting information on the impact of the virus. A surge in median asking rents was caused by a jump in... 28th October 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Rise in mortgage payments an upside for house prices Despite a surge in mortgage applications, holdings of residential loans by commercial banks declined in August and September. We suspect that divergence is due to a rise in mortgage repayments, which... 22nd October 2020 · 3 mins read
