US Housing Market Update How vulnerable are house prices to a rise in rates? Our forecast for mortgage rates to rise to 4.2% by end-2023 will help slow house price gains, but we don’t think that increase will be enough to cause an outright fall in values. And with homes not... 26th August 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing End of eviction ban won’t stop recovery in rents The eviction ban has been extended to early October, but we doubt it will be renewed again. Given the strength of the labour market, significant government support and robust rental demand, the... 19th August 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Increase in build-for-rent won’t derail SF rent growth Surging demand for single-family homes has revived institutional investor interest in the single-family rental (SFR) market. With few homes available to buy, interest in build-for-rent (BFR)... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Conditions tighten in homeowner and rental markets The second quarter Housing Vacancies and Homeownership survey showed market conditions tightening in both the homeowner and rental markets, with vacancy rates at 56-year and 37-year lows respectively... 28th July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Will booming house prices translate into rents? The recent surge in house price growth to record highs does not automatically mean rental growth is also set to take off. But a strong recovery in rental demand as cities reopen and households make... 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Bounce in high-rise demand to give way to gardens There is mounting evidence that the exodus from cities is winding down. As economies reopen, we think that cities will come back to life, bringing a wave of new demand for high-rise apartments. But... 9th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Timberrrrrrrr... Although we remain optimistic about the near-term demand outlook, we think that the price of US lumber will fall further in the coming months as domestic supply continues to revive. 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Valuations still reasonable despite house price boom The housing market hit a milestone in April, with real house prices rising above the previous peak recorded during the boom of the mid-2000s. But that doesn’t mean valuations are at dangerous levels... 22nd June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Surge in home equity won’t trigger credit easing The home equity share has surged to a 31-year high, which in the past may have persuaded mortgage lenders to ease credit conditions. But Ability to Repay regulations brought in after the financial... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update What’s driving the surge in rent expectations? Consumer expectations of rental growth have surged to record highs over the past couple of months. But that appears to reflect optimism around the housing market in general, rather than the rental... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update House prices will avoid a dangerous bubble House price expectations have taken off since the start of the year, and that raises the risk of a self-reinforcing bubble forming. However, there are no signs that lenders are rapidly loosening... 1st June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Will expensive home sales keep booming? Sales of expensive homes have done particularly well over the past year, with the share of existing homes sold for over $500,000 surging from 15% a year ago to a record high 26% in April. An extreme... 26th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Outlook bright for home improvement spending Booming home sales, record low inventory, the shift to working from home and a surge in savings have all helped boost home improvement spending over the past three quarters. While home sales are set... 19th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Increased demand for larger apartments to persist Increased demand for larger apartments to accommodate working from home is already evident in NYC, where the inventory of units with two or more bedrooms has seen a sharper decline compared to smaller... 14th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Surging house prices not bringing vacants to market There were 1.14m vacant homes not being used for any purpose in the first quarter, enough to double the inventory of existing homes for sale. Record low interest rates and the prospect of further... 28th April 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update High lumber costs won’t cut starts or boost prices Surging lumber prices have led to delays in housing starts and an increase in some new home prices. But, while we expect lumber prices to remain relatively high over the next couple of years, the... 21st April 2021 · 3 mins read
