Commodities Update Timberrrrrrrr... Although we remain optimistic about the near-term demand outlook, we think that the price of US lumber will fall further in the coming months as domestic supply continues to revive. 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Valuations still reasonable despite house price boom The housing market hit a milestone in April, with real house prices rising above the previous peak recorded during the boom of the mid-2000s. But that doesn’t mean valuations are at dangerous levels... 22nd June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Surge in home equity won’t trigger credit easing The home equity share has surged to a 31-year high, which in the past may have persuaded mortgage lenders to ease credit conditions. But Ability to Repay regulations brought in after the financial... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update What’s driving the surge in rent expectations? Consumer expectations of rental growth have surged to record highs over the past couple of months. But that appears to reflect optimism around the housing market in general, rather than the rental... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update House prices will avoid a dangerous bubble House price expectations have taken off since the start of the year, and that raises the risk of a self-reinforcing bubble forming. However, there are no signs that lenders are rapidly loosening... 1st June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Will expensive home sales keep booming? Sales of expensive homes have done particularly well over the past year, with the share of existing homes sold for over $500,000 surging from 15% a year ago to a record high 26% in April. An extreme... 26th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Outlook bright for home improvement spending Booming home sales, record low inventory, the shift to working from home and a surge in savings have all helped boost home improvement spending over the past three quarters. While home sales are set... 19th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Increased demand for larger apartments to persist Increased demand for larger apartments to accommodate working from home is already evident in NYC, where the inventory of units with two or more bedrooms has seen a sharper decline compared to smaller... 14th May 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Surging house prices not bringing vacants to market There were 1.14m vacant homes not being used for any purpose in the first quarter, enough to double the inventory of existing homes for sale. Record low interest rates and the prospect of further... 28th April 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update High lumber costs won’t cut starts or boost prices Surging lumber prices have led to delays in housing starts and an increase in some new home prices. But, while we expect lumber prices to remain relatively high over the next couple of years, the... 21st April 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Is there still a bright future for Sunbelt apartments? The easing of virus restrictions and return to offices for many white-collar workers will mean that apartment markets in cities such as NYC and Washington D.C. will outperform this year. But we think... 15th April 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Is buying sentiment pointing to a crash in home sales? Record low inventory, surging house prices and stretched affordability have pushed the share of households who think now is a good time to buy a home to the lowest since 2010. But, at the same time... 25th March 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Rising rates will cool, not crash, the housing market We now expect mortgage interest rates will rise to 4.0% by the end of the year, and to 4.25% by end-2022. But housing demand will be supported by a reopening economy, the large fiscal stimulus... 19th March 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Rise in cash-out volume not a risk to the recovery With fewer spending options during the lockdown, the share of cash-out refinances is much lower than usual given the recent surge in house prices. And, while the volume of cash extracted has reached a... 12th March 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Reopening less of a positive for Boston apartments Greater availability, lower prices and proximity to NYC have supported demand for Boston apartments during the pandemic. That implies demand may edge back as the country reopens, and some workers... 5th March 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update High lumber prices force builders to delay Record high lumber prices are leading to delays in housing starts, and as result the share of homes for sale that have not been started reached a record high in January. While that will constrain... 26th February 2021 · 3 mins read
