US Data Response CPI, Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Dec.) December's retail sales and consumer price reports together suggest that real consumption growth accelerated to 3.8% annualised in the fourth quarter, from 2.4% in the third. If our calculations are... 14th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) & PPI (Dec.) November's trade figures support our view that annualised GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year was at least 4%, better than the consensus forecast of just over 3%. Meanwhile, December's... 13th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The 103,000 gain in payroll employment in December was very disappointing after the spectacular 297,000 gain touted by the ADP survey. Admittedly, the drop in the unemployment rate, from 9.8% in... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Non-Manufact'ng & ADP Employment (Dec.) The latest ISM non-manufacturing and ADP private payroll surveys both suggest that the economic recovery picked up some significant momentum towards the end of last year. Growth should remain fairly... 5th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The improvement in December's ISM manufacturing index, along with the rebound in construction spending in November, suggests that the recovery is regaining some of the momentum lost during the Summer. 3rd January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders & Personal Spending (Nov.) The data releases today support our estimate that GDP growth probably accelerated to 4.0% annualised in the fourth quarter, from 2.6% in the third. The main difference is the pick up in consumption... 23rd December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Nov.) Consumer price inflation remained unusually weak in November and, given the large amount of excess capacity in America's economy, we expect it to continue trending gradually lower over the next couple... 15th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Nov.) The Holiday shopping season appears to have got off to a very good start, suggesting that fourth-quarter consumption growth will be strong. But without a meaningful acceleration in real income growth... 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Negative Equity (Q3) The fall in the proportion of homeowners in negative equity in the third quarter offers little comfort since it was driven by foreclosures rather than a rise in prices. The second downward leg in... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The sharp decline in the international trade deficit to a nine-month low of $38.7bn in October, from $44.6bn, suggests that our 2.5% forecast for annualised fourth-quarter GDP growth will need to be... 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Flow of Funds (Q3) The latest Flow of Funds accounts from the Fed show that the public sector is now accumulating debt at a faster pace than the private sector is paying it down. 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) November's Employment Report was a painful reality check for those hoping that a meaningful acceleration in economic activity was underway. The truth is that the economic recovery is going nowhere at... 3rd December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The resilience of the ISM manufacturing index and the improvement in the ADP employment survey together suggest that the economy is starting to emerge from its summer soft patch. Unfortunately, there... 2nd December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Cons. Confidence (Nov.) & Case-Shiller House Prices (Q3) The rise in consumer confidence in November is not consistent with a sustained acceleration in consumption growth at a time when income growth is weak, the unemployment rate is high and a double dip... 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response FHFA House Prices (Q3) & New Home Sales (Oct.) The US economy once again has to contend with a faltering housing market, in which both prices and activity are falling. Thankfully, this second downward leg should be shorter and less severe than the... 24th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders & Personal Spending (Oct.) October's durable goods orders and personal spending data suggest that households have started to pick up the baton of growth from businesses. Whether households will be able to carry the burden on... 24th November 2010 · 1 min read
