US Data Response Consumer Prices & Housing Starts (Oct.) October's consumer price inflation figures support the recent argument made by several Fed officials, that they would have launched QE2 even if the Fed's mandate was to target price stability alone... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Oct.) After almost completely petering out over the past few months, October's industrial production data suggest that the manufacturing recovery may be gathering momentum again, driven by demand for... 16th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) & Empire State Index (Nov.) October's retail sales are a fairly encouraging sign that consumption growth may be starting to gain some traction. But households' real spending power will soon be hit by higher gasoline and food... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep.) September's US international trade figures may give Chinese officials travelling to Seoul for tomorrow's G20 summit something to cling to. But the key point is that the US bilateral trade deficit with... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) October's employment report was stronger than expected and, at the margin, reduces the risk we will actually see the unemployment rate edge higher over the coming months. Nevertheless, there is still... 5th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manuf. Index (Oct.) & Personal Income (Sep.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in October will not prevent the Fed from announcing more quantitative easing (QE) on Wednesday. September's personal spending and income data show that... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Output growth rebounds from overly-weak July Stronger August GDP data partially reflect temporary factors related to housing, while supporting prospects of stronger and sustained business investment. Overall, there is nothing in this report to... 29th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3) At 2.0% annualised, third-quarter GDP growth remained well below the economy's trend growth rate of between 2.5% and 3.0%, underlining why many Fed officials think another bout of quantitative easing... 29th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders & New Home Sales (Sep.) September's durable goods orders suggest that the industrial recovery is nearing extinction. With the housing market still in no fit state to pick up the baton of growth, the economy is going to... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Cons. Confidence (Oct.) & House Prices (Aug.) The rebound in equity prices has started to boost consumer confidence, but further gains could be limited by a renewed slide in house prices. Households are unlikely to be in the mood to spend for... 26th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep 10) Manufacturing output contracted by 0.2% m/m in September, illustrating that the previously robust recovery in the factory sector is definitely behind us now and this could even be the start of a... 18th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Prices start to fall back (Oct 10) House prices have started to fall back in response to the plunge in sales seen since the homebuyer tax credit expired in April. Both the Case-Shiller and FHFA indices showed prices fell in July. (See... 18th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Sep.) September's consumer prices and retail sales figures will do little to ease the Fed's concerns that inflation is too low and that economic growth is too weak. Indeed, in a speech today Fed Chairman... 15th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug.) & PPI (Sep.) The widening in the international trade deficit in August, and in particular the jump in the bilateral deficit with China to a record high, will only fuel growing speculation of a currency war. 14th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) September's payroll report adds to the evidence that the recovery is losing what little forward momentum it had and will harden the resolve of the more dovish Fed officials to press forward with... 8th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manuf. Index (Sep.) & Personal Income (Aug.) There is nothing in the economic reports released today to change our view that GDP growth will stumble along at a 2% annualised pace for some considerable time yet. 1st October 2010 · 1 min read
