US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Apr.) The 3.6% m/m drop back in durable goods orders in April isn't quite as bad as it looks, at least not when we take into account that decline only partially reversed the 4.4% m/m increase in March... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) Industrial production was unchanged in April and manufacturing output fell by 0.4% m/m, largely because of the disruption to motor vehicle production, which is being hampered by parts shortages in the... 17th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The pass through of higher commodity prices pushed consumer price inflation up to a two-and-a-half-year high of 3.2% in April, from 2.7%. Nevertheless, with commodity prices now dropping back, the Fed... 13th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Apr.) April's retail sales data were something of a double-edged sword. Upward revisions to sales in both February and March mean that annualised GDP growth in the first quarter may be revised up from 1.8%... 12th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) It's taken two-and-a-half years, but US exports finally recovered in March to the levels seen before the recession. However, imports have risen just as fast. As the level of imports is still much... 11th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The 244,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in April will come as something of a relief to the financial markets, particularly after the surge in initial jobless claims reported yesterday and the slump... 6th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) Today's data releases show that while the manufacturing sector is still leading the recovery, the construction sector remains mired in recession. 2nd May 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 1st Estimate) The slowdown in first-quarter GDP growth to 1.8% annualised, from 3.1% in the final quarter of last year, was due principally to the surge in energy prices, adverse weather and a sizeable drop in... 28th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Mar.) Although March's data on durable goods orders show that industry is still by far the best performing part of the economy, business investment appears to have ground to a halt. This is one reason why... 27th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response CPI, Ind. Prod'n (Mar.) & Consumer Conf. (Apr.) The pass through of higher agricultural and commodity prices continued in March, with a 0.8% m/m increase in food prices and a 5.6% m/m increase in gasoline prices leading to a 0.5% m/m increase in... 15th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) March's 0.4% m/m increase in US retail sales provides only half the story as the headline numbers are not adjusted for the rise in prices. The key message is that real spending is hardly rising, if at... 13th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The narrowing in the trade deficit in February is a brief respite before the impact of the more recent surge in oil prices pushes the deficit sharply wider. In any case, it looks like net trade was a... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) Conditions in the labour market are finally starting to show signs of meaningful improvement. Non-farm payrolls increased by a healthy 216,000 last month, slightly above the consensus forecast for a... 1st April 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The trivial drop back in the ISM manufacturing index to 61.2 in March, from 61.4, still leaves it at a level consistent with GDP growth of more than 5% annualised. Actual growth will be lower than... 1st April 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) The 16.9% m/m decline in new home sales to a record low of only 250,000 annualised in February, from 301,000 the month before, underlines just how bad conditions in the housing market still are. 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response CPI, Industrial Prod'n (Feb.) & Philly Fed (Mar.) Higher headline CPI inflation and the strength of the manufacturing recovery are not going to sway the Fed when core inflation remains muted and other sectors of the economy, notably housing, are... 17th March 2011 · 1 min read
