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ISM Non-Manufact'ng & ADP Employment (Dec.)

The latest ISM non-manufacturing and ADP private payroll surveys both suggest that the economic recovery picked up some significant momentum towards the end of last year. Growth should remain fairly robust in the first half of this year, boosted by the new fiscal stimulus. However, we expect it to slow again in the second half of this year, as the stimulus starts to wane and falling house prices force households to save more.

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