US Data Response GDP (Q2 1st Estimate) The disappointing 1.3% annualised rise in GDP in the second quarter and the downward revision in the first quarter suggests that economic growth for 2011 as a whole may fall short of our 2.5% forecast... 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (June.) The fall in durable goods orders in June confirms that the US economy is still struggling. But the numbers do not alter our estimate that annualised GDP growth in the second quarter was 2.3%, slightly... 28th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jul.) The slight rebound in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence, to 59.5 in July from 57.6 in June, is a bit bizarre given that all the other measures of confidence have recently fallen... 27th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Jun.) It looks like the annual rate of headline CPI inflation peaked at 3.6% in June, but core inflation edged up to 1.6% last month, from 1.5%, and will continue to climb over the next few months. By the... 16th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Jun.) The level of retail sales has been pretty much unchanged in the three months to June, suggesting that annualised real consumption growth in the second quarter was just 0.6% and overall GDP growth was... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (May) Even though the trade deficit widened in May, to a level last seen just after the fall of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, it still looks as though net trade made a decent positive contribution to... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) June's employment report doesn't have a single redeeming feature. It's awful from start to finish. Non-farm payrolls increased by only 18,000 last month, down from a similarly muted 25,000 gain the... 9th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The modest rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in June, to 55.3 from 53.5 in May, will ease fears that the economy is heading towards a double dip recession. But more generally, the clear slowdown... 2nd July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The further fall in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence in June shows that the drop back in equity prices, the rebound in the unemployment rate and the further fall in house prices... 29th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (May) The rebound in orders for new durable goods in May will help ease any fears that the economy is headed for a double-dip recession. Nevertheless, it doesn't change the broader picture that economic... 25th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (May) Today's data releases brought more signs of mounting economic weakness and evidence that the upward pressure on inflation is beginning to fade. 15th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr.) Pretty much all of the sharp fall in the trade deficit in April will eventually be reversed as the temporary effects caused by disruptions from Japan's earthquake fade. Nonetheless, a modest positive... 10th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The very disappointing 54,000 increase in May's non-farm payrolls, down sharply from a 232,000 gain in April, will undoubtedly lead to calls for the Fed to continue with its large-scale asset... 3rd June 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing (May) & Construction Spending (Apr.) The sharp decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a 19-month low of 53.5 in May, from 60.4, will only add to fears that the economy has hit another "soft patch". That decline comes on the heels of... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (May) The fall back in consumer confidence in May was most likely due to the combination of the sharp decline in house prices in the first quarter, the more recent flat lining of equity prices, the uptick... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
