US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) There is no hint in September's Employment Report that another recession is starting. Nevertheless, the 103,000 increase in non-farm payrolls last month is still consistent with what would normally be... 8th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The modest rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 51.6 in September, from 50.6, demonstrates that the economy hasn't fallen off a cliff (at least not yet). But, at that level, the index is... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Aug.) August's durable goods orders data suggest that firms did not pull the plug on their investment spending in the wake of the turmoil in the financial markets. This supports our view that annualised GDP... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence, which was pretty much unchanged in September, shows that households are just as downbeat as they were last month. With equity prices hardly off... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response CPI & IP (Aug.), Philly Fed & Empire State (Sep.) The continued rise in inflation in August, which saw both headline and core CPI inflation hit two-year highs, is another reason to suspect that the Fed will shy away from a further round of full-blown... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Aug.) The stagnation in retail sales in August suggests that households became more cautious after the plunge in equity prices towards the start of the month. Sales may also have been dampened by Hurricane... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) The sharp decline in the trade deficit in July is one more reason to believe that annualised third-quarter GDP growth will come in around 2.5%. With global demand clearly weakening, however, the... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) Even after allowing for the disruption of the strike by 45,000 Verizon workers last month, the stagnation in payroll employment is an ominous sign. The monthly gain in payrolls has now been below 100... 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The marginal decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 50.6 in August, from 50.9, will further ease fears that the US economy is headed for a recession. At that level, the index is actually consistent... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Jul.) July's durable goods orders data are not good as they might look. Nonetheless, they still suggest that business investment may accelerate in the third quarter. This supports our view that third... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) A further rise in core CPI inflation in the coming months will probably prevent the Fed from responding more aggressively to the economic slowdown and latest market turmoil with a third round of asset... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The healthy 0.9% m/m increase in industrial production in July supports our view that GDP growth in the third quarter will rebound a bit as the adverse effects from the Japanese disaster unwind. But... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The rise in retail sales values in July supports our view that there will be at least some rebound in economic growth in the third quarter and that another recession will, in all likelihood, be... 13th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jun.) The sharp widening in the trade deficit in June is a stark reminder that the US cannot rely on a sustained boost from overseas to offset the weak domestic economy. Indeed, today's data open the door... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) July's employment report will go some way to reducing fears that the economy is slipping into another recession. But it highlights that the labour market has hardly recovered at all from the recession... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) July's ISM report was a shocker. The index is not flagging up another recession (at least not yet), but it suggests that the easing in GDP growth in the first half of the year is looking more and more... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
