UK Housing Market Update Large forecast house price falls not wildly out of line with the past While the 35% fall in nominal house prices that we expect over the next couple of years will be unprecedented, in real terms our forecast looks to be not wildly out of line with past experience. 30th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Crosby Review : No silver bullet to shorten the housing correction The key message from Sir James Crosby’s interim report on the state of UK mortgage finance is that the current squeeze on mortgage credit will be protracted. While he does not rule out the possibility... 29th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Diverging house price surveys reflect timing issues – little more All the major indices have now reported some falls in average house prices. But the scale of those falls varies wildly. Should we be concerned? At one extreme, the Halifax and Nationwide have reported... 15th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update UK heads towards recession We have been more concerned than most forecasters about the outlook for the UK economy and, in particular, the prospect of an abrupt unwinding of the various imbalances that have built up over the... 2nd July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Slower rate cuts increase recession risks The recent dreadful news on inflation and the Bank of England’s hawkish Inflation Report suggest that interest rates will not fall as quickly this year as we had previously hoped – we have raised our... 15th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update House price indices send a consistent message House price indices differ in their coverage. The Nationwide and Halifax include only sales on which they approve the mortgage, roughly 8% and 20% respectively of the 75% of sales which are... 2nd May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Bank of England Financial Stability Report, May 2008 Despite some of this morning’s headlines, the main thrust of today’s Financial Stability Report (FSR) was that downside risks to the financial system, property markets and to the broader economy... 1st May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update UK house price forecast revisions Developments over the past quarter have highlighted the downside risks to our house price forecasts. Accordingly, we have cut them. We now think that house prices will fall by 8% this year, rather... 21st April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are mortgage payments really absorbing a record share of income? Clients may have seen an article in the Telegraph on Wednesday 16th April which reported that, according to research company Mintel, mortgage payments now take up a record 25% of the average household... 18th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How much further might mortgage lending spreads rise? By mid 2009, we expect base rates to have fallen 175 basis points (bps), to just 3.5%. Borrowers with an existing tracker mortgage will benefit, but new borrowers or those looking to remortgage may... 9th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update UK to slip down housing table in 2008 The latest annual European Housing Report published by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) echoed other evidence pointing to a general slowdown in the pace of activity and price... 7th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update No end in sight to the tightening in mortgage lending standards The decision by three major lenders to withdraw their range of 100% to 125% mortgages will have only a limited direct dampening impact on the housing market, since the take-up of these loans has been... 21st February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Should the Budget lower stamp duty to revive the housing market? Speculation is mounting that the Chancellor might ultimately decide to follow the US lead and deliver a fiscal stimulus to the economy. With the housing market in the doldrums, and first time buyer... 15th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Does the credit crunch explain the fall in mortgage approvals? 6th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Widening mortgage spreads a sign of tightening lending criteria The increases in tracker rates announced by some mortgage lenders over the past few days add to other evidence that the recent improvement in the situation in financial markets has not prevented a... 28th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Bank of England Financial Stability Report, October 2007 25th October 2007 · 1 min read
