UK Housing Market Focus Where next for the new-build premium? The new-build premium tends to move inversely to house prices, due to housebuilders’ pricing strategy and changes in affordability. Given that house prices are likely to drift lower over the next... 13th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will the euro-zone crisis undermine London property values? Prices in London’s prime property markets, especially residential, look very vulnerable to a major financial market shock, or anything that might undermine investors’ desire to use London property as... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How will UK property markets fare in 2012? A few local hot-spots aside, 2011 was not a great year for UK property markets. But the signs are that 2012 will be worse. Activity will remain weak and both commercial and residential property prices... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Why housing equity amplifies, not smoothes, the house price cycle For a time at least, rising house prices can be a virtuous circle, as equity gains provide the support for further house price growth. But if house prices fall, equity is destroyed while debt remains... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will there be a shortage of buy-to-let lending? Over the next five years, favourable margins and low rates of payment problems mean that lenders will be able and willing to meet landlords’ growing demand for buy-to-let mortgages. Hence, a lack of... 20th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Permission-free conversions: a watershed proposal? The government’s proposal for permission-free office/industrial to residential conversions is pretty radical and, relative to what might otherwise have occurred, we estimate that the proposals could... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Borrowers more exposed than ever to rising rates The low starting point for interest rates, the high share of mortgages at variable rates of interest and the record level of mortgage debt relative to earnings mean that borrowers are more exposed... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2011: Still banking on Plan A The Budget was a fairly cautious affair, with the Chancellor introducing a fiscally neutral package of measures and hence sticking closely to the existing austerity plans. Nonetheless, the Government... 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will institutional investment in housing increase? Institutional investment in the private rented sector will not increase without a significant fall in house prices and continued strong demand from tenants. Even then, policy changes are required, but... 17th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will central London property be immune from further falls? In the next two to three years, central London house prices will be more resilient than the wider market. But we still expect them to give up ground. It is plausible that central London house prices... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is the housing market heading for a double-dip? Low interest rates alone will not prevent the recent falls in house prices from being extended, perhaps significantly this year. Rather, we expect that the benefits of low interest rates will be... 28th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will arrears and possessions increase to US levels? If we are right that unemployment will rise markedly over the next two years, the rates of arrears and possessions will increase. However, three features of the UK’s mortgage market should keep the... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus The FSA's responsible lending proposals; "a step too far"? Claims that the FSA’s responsible lending proposals will do lasting damage to the size and structure of the mortgage market assume that the historically high gap between house prices and incomes is... 22nd December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus How much bigger will the private rented sector get? Over the next three to five years, we think that the most likely scenario is that the private rented sector (PRS) continues to expand. By 2015, it is plausible that 16% or even 17% of households will... 24th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will detached prices outperform because of tight credit? Detached house prices will prove to be more resilient than other types of residential property in the next two to three years. Higher earners, who disproportionately demand this most expensive type of... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Is UK mortgage affordability worse than other countries? Intuitively, one might expect the high population density and apparent structural undersupply of housing in the UK to mean that we have historically spent a higher proportion of our earnings on... 21st October 2010 · 1 min read
