UK Housing Market Focus Which type of property will experience the largest falls? The received wisdom is that, during the current correction, supply shortages will ensure that the price of detached family homes hold up far better than the price of flats, particularly in the... 11th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Is the rise in buyer interest enough to trigger a recovery? Given the severity of the decline in buyer interest over the past year or two, the recent reported increase is just a drop in the ocean. Buyer interest will need to rise significantly further before... 2nd April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus What are auction prices telling us? The price of property sold at auction provides a useful steer on where the true market clearing price might be. It suggests that the market clearing price for residential property might already be... 16th March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus What is the fair value level for house prices? To our minds, the weight of evidence suggests that the fair value level for house prices is currently in the region of £125,000. For context, that figure is some 17% below the Nationwide’s estimate of... 16th February 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Mortgage arrears and possessions to rise to a record high Thanks to sharply rising unemployment, we expect mortgage arrears to surpass the early 1990s highs. While Government pressure on lenders to be more lenient with struggling households and the... 15th January 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus What is the outlook for new-build prices? In contrast to the average homeowner, house-builders’ operational survival directly depends on their ability to sell their properties. Accordingly, house-builders will be more willing to drop property... 22nd December 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus How important is the City for London’s housing market? We suspect that the importance of the City jobs market to London’s housing market has been overplayed. But against the current backdrop in which the wider economy is on course for a twoyear... 10th November 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus How far will global house prices fall? To date, only a few major economies have been afflicted by large scale falls in house prices. But all that will change in 2009. Housing is significantly overvalued across much of Europe, as well as in... 29th October 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus A rapid fall in house prices will minimise the pain If the recent rates of house price falls are sustained, it is plausible that the 35% peak-to-trough decline that we expect will have been delivered by autumn 2009. The sheer speed of adjustment is... 21st October 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus More people set to share homes as house prices fall In the same way that rising house prices encouraged people to bring forward their decision to buy a property, expectations of falling house prices will convince many to defer their property purchase... 14th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus House prices to fall by 35% In recent months, the housing market correction has gathered momentum. The economy is also poised for three years of sub-trend growth and unemployment looks set to reach a 12-year high. We believe... 17th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus How far will new housing supply fall? We believe that new dwelling completions in England could fall from 175,000 last year to 135,000 by end-2009, a 25% drop. Past housing market corrections have triggered falls of at least 15% in new... 11th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus The outlook for household savings The household saving rate is set to rise significantly from its recent record lows, with clear adverse implications for household spending. But the consequences for the savings industry, in particular... 28th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus The demand for second homes is set to plummet Over the past decade, the capital gains on residential property on offer have been an additional attraction to owning a second home. But now that the housing market correction is underway, second... 20th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus The outlook for residential rents Poor levels of affordability, tight lending criteria, and further expected capital losses on houses, imply both strong growth in the demand for rental accommodation and limited growth in supply... 8th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus The re-emergence of hidden housing supply is set to worsen the housing market downturn Many owner-occupiers are engaged in a form of speculation, in that whether, when, and how much space they buy is heavily influenced by their beliefs about the future course of house prices. As it... 23rd April 2008 · 1 min read
