UK Housing Market Focus What is the outlook for new-build prices? In contrast to the average homeowner, house-builders’ operational survival directly depends on their ability to sell their properties. Accordingly, house-builders will be more willing to drop property... 22nd December 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus How important is the City for London’s housing market? We suspect that the importance of the City jobs market to London’s housing market has been overplayed. But against the current backdrop in which the wider economy is on course for a twoyear... 10th November 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus How far will global house prices fall? To date, only a few major economies have been afflicted by large scale falls in house prices. But all that will change in 2009. Housing is significantly overvalued across much of Europe, as well as in... 29th October 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus A rapid fall in house prices will minimise the pain If the recent rates of house price falls are sustained, it is plausible that the 35% peak-to-trough decline that we expect will have been delivered by autumn 2009. The sheer speed of adjustment is... 21st October 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus More people set to share homes as house prices fall In the same way that rising house prices encouraged people to bring forward their decision to buy a property, expectations of falling house prices will convince many to defer their property purchase... 14th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus House prices to fall by 35% In recent months, the housing market correction has gathered momentum. The economy is also poised for three years of sub-trend growth and unemployment looks set to reach a 12-year high. We believe... 17th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus How far will new housing supply fall? We believe that new dwelling completions in England could fall from 175,000 last year to 135,000 by end-2009, a 25% drop. Past housing market corrections have triggered falls of at least 15% in new... 11th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus The outlook for household savings The household saving rate is set to rise significantly from its recent record lows, with clear adverse implications for household spending. But the consequences for the savings industry, in particular... 28th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus The demand for second homes is set to plummet Over the past decade, the capital gains on residential property on offer have been an additional attraction to owning a second home. But now that the housing market correction is underway, second... 20th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus The outlook for residential rents Poor levels of affordability, tight lending criteria, and further expected capital losses on houses, imply both strong growth in the demand for rental accommodation and limited growth in supply... 8th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus The re-emergence of hidden housing supply is set to worsen the housing market downturn Many owner-occupiers are engaged in a form of speculation, in that whether, when, and how much space they buy is heavily influenced by their beliefs about the future course of house prices. As it... 23rd April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Affordability – why it has never been worse Affordability in the housing market has never been worse. This is not the message given by standard measures because, by focusing only on initial payments, they ignore the fact that the real value of... 31st March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Has easy credit been driving house prices? We estimate that without the relaxation in credit conditions, average house prices would have risen by a cumulative 19% since the end of 2003. In fact, the Nationwide house price index reports that... 27th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Have buy-to-let investors priced out first-time buyers? We believe that buy-to-let (BTL) investors have priced aspiring first-time buyers (FTBs) out of the housing market over the last 3-4 years. Admittedly, BTL did not trigger the abrupt drop in FTB... 25th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus What are the house-builders’ share prices telling us? 4th December 2007 · 1 min read
