UK Housing Market Focus Could housing be the weak link in 2017? Our economic forecasts point to a supportive backdrop for the housing market in 2017. Nevertheless, there are three potential risks facing the market. These are an interest rate shock, a shift in the... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will lower rates give the housing market another boost? Interest rates are an important driver of housing demand, but they are not the only factor. And restricted access to mortgage credit, rather than its cost, is currently actin as the biggest drag on... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus What’s driving the surge in Build-to-Rent? Record demand for rented homes, rock-bottom interest rates and an unusually low spread between commercial and residential property income returns have triggered a surge in build-to-rent activity this... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus After the referendum - how will the housing market fare? The movements in housebuilder share prices in the past two weeks could be a sign that a slump in house price expectations is about to trigger a fresh house price correction. But if we are right, and... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus The effect of Government housing interventions in 2016 Schemes designed to unblock stalled sites or provide discounted homes for first-time buyers are unlikely to transform the UK’s housing supply. Meanwhile, BTL tax reform and the Help to Buy ISA are... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Has the housing market recovery moved into a lower gear? There are signs that house prices are approaching the limit of what the current level of incomes and mortgage lending terms can sustainably support. As a result, we believe that the next few years... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus How strong are competitive forces in the mortgage market? Competitive forces in the mortgage market have strengthened over the past year. But some types of borrowers have benefitted far more than others. In particular, pricing data show that competition to... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus How has self-employment affected mortgage lending? As an indicator of the UK’s increased labour market flexibility, the rise in self-employment over the past six or seven years has probably been a good thing for the wider economy. But we think it has... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Why is the stock of homes for sale so low? Record low interest rates have boosted house prices and cut returns on other assets. That in turn has encouraged homemovers to either rent out their old home, or just keep it empty. Alongside a... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Can the link between housing starts and sales be recalibrated? At first glance, the strong link between housing starts and transactions suggests that a step shift in housing supply will only be possible if turnover in the wider market is raised sharply first. But... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Are high construction costs holding back housebuilding? The latest dip in housing starts has been accompanied by a sharp rise in construction costs. But it is shortages of labour and materials, rather than an increase in their costs, which seems to be... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Has the housing boom run its course? We are not forecasting a return to boom conditions in 2015. However, we do think that the outlook for both house prices and housing market activity is rather stronger than is typically believed, as a... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Are homeowners more sensitive to rising rates than in the past? Although homeowners are currently carrying a lot of mortgage debt, compressing mortgage spreads and an expected concurrent increase in incomes means that they are not notably more sensitive to a rise... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus The outlook for mortgage interest rate spreads After blowing out during the financial crisis, mortgage interest rate spreads have been trending down for the past 18 months. As financial markets make further progress towards normality, that process... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Are the housing market's warning lights flashing? The recent drop in mortgage approvals does not negate the need for the FPC to test its new macro-prudential powers . For one thing, we expect the drop in lending to be temporary. In addition, the re... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Can the Financial Policy Committee cool the housing market? The FPC has a number of policy tools at its disposal should it decide it needs to cool the housing market. Provided it acts with sufficient conviction, there is every chance that the new tools will... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
