UK Housing Market Focus Will central London bear the brunt of any price falls? The shortage of willing buyers is most evident at the top end of London’s housing market. So in 2018, we expect house price falls to be concentrated in the more expensive central London boroughs. In... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Have London house prices reached a tipping point? While still true at the national level, London can no longer be characterised as a sellers’ market. An apparent shift in attitudes among sellers, combined with lower buyer numbers has sharply altered... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will property wilt in 2018? The price gains of recent years have left housing looking expensive and commercial property looking fully-valued. The good news is that interest rate rises on the scale that we anticipate are unlikely... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Can the housing market regain its momentum in 2018? Neither the stronger economic recovery that we anticipate, nor the cuts to Stamp Duty Land Tax for first time buyers announced in the Budget are likely to reinvigorate the housing market next year... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus How would the housing market fare without Help to Buy? The Help to Buy equity loan scheme has undoubtedly played a role in boosting mortgage approvals and the supply of new homes. Yet it is easy to overstate its importance and to understate the role of... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Could housing be the weak link in 2017? Our economic forecasts point to a supportive backdrop for the housing market in 2017. Nevertheless, there are three potential risks facing the market. These are an interest rate shock, a shift in the... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will lower rates give the housing market another boost? Interest rates are an important driver of housing demand, but they are not the only factor. And restricted access to mortgage credit, rather than its cost, is currently actin as the biggest drag on... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus What’s driving the surge in Build-to-Rent? Record demand for rented homes, rock-bottom interest rates and an unusually low spread between commercial and residential property income returns have triggered a surge in build-to-rent activity this... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus After the referendum - how will the housing market fare? The movements in housebuilder share prices in the past two weeks could be a sign that a slump in house price expectations is about to trigger a fresh house price correction. But if we are right, and... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus The effect of Government housing interventions in 2016 Schemes designed to unblock stalled sites or provide discounted homes for first-time buyers are unlikely to transform the UK’s housing supply. Meanwhile, BTL tax reform and the Help to Buy ISA are... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Has the housing market recovery moved into a lower gear? There are signs that house prices are approaching the limit of what the current level of incomes and mortgage lending terms can sustainably support. As a result, we believe that the next few years... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus How strong are competitive forces in the mortgage market? Competitive forces in the mortgage market have strengthened over the past year. But some types of borrowers have benefitted far more than others. In particular, pricing data show that competition to... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus How has self-employment affected mortgage lending? As an indicator of the UK’s increased labour market flexibility, the rise in self-employment over the past six or seven years has probably been a good thing for the wider economy. But we think it has... 19th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Why is the stock of homes for sale so low? Record low interest rates have boosted house prices and cut returns on other assets. That in turn has encouraged homemovers to either rent out their old home, or just keep it empty. Alongside a... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Can the link between housing starts and sales be recalibrated? At first glance, the strong link between housing starts and transactions suggests that a step shift in housing supply will only be possible if turnover in the wider market is raised sharply first. But... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Are high construction costs holding back housebuilding? The latest dip in housing starts has been accompanied by a sharp rise in construction costs. But it is shortages of labour and materials, rather than an increase in their costs, which seems to be... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
