UK Housing Market Focus Have there been previous double-dips in house prices? A second round of falls in house prices would not be without precedent. There are at least eight examples of double-dips in real house prices in the international data from the past 40 years. But... 5th August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus The outlook for house prices in the North West Over the next 20 years, house price growth in the North West is likely to match the UK average closely. If anything, the North West may slightly outpace the UK. However, there will be considerable sub... 19th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Property in the new Parliament At the time of the 2015 election, we expect commercial property prices to be more or less unchanged from their current levels. Yet despite the low interest rate environment, the outlook for... 12th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Emergency Budget 2010: Tough but tender This was a Budget with two faces. The total discretionary tightening will build up to 8% of GDP per annum by 2015-16, larger than Canada’s in the 1990s, but smaller than Sweden’s and Finland’s. 22nd June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Have households accelerated their mortgage repayments? Claims that households have begun to step up the rate at which they are paying back their mortgages do not look well founded. Rather, over the past year or so, repayments of mortgage principal have... 18th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will lower net migration push rents lower? Net migration has been a major contributor to the growth of the private rented sector in recent years but, unless it drops considerably further, the recession-driven drop in migration is unlikely to... 9th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Budget 2010 This was a clever budget which made the most of very difficult circumstances. The Chancellor largely avoided the temptation to bribe the voters with their own money. There was a package of tax cuts... 24th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Recovery or relapse in the housing market? Given our views that the labour market shake-out has some way to go, we believe that house prices will suffer a relapse in 2010. Our central forecast is for prices to fall by 10% taking them back to... 22nd January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus What does the future hold for Scottish house prices? Scotland’s housing market may have shaken off its reputation as an underperformer compared to the UK in recent years, but its longer term outlook is not so promising. Unfavourable demographics and a... 14th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Pre-Budget Report 2009 In macro-economic and fiscal terms, this PBR was a complete non-event. It did nothing to support the economy in the near term, and nothing to restore the public finances to health further ahead. A... 9th December 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Recent house price rises lack a firm foundation The recent rises in the major house price indices have fanned hopes that the worst of the housing market correction is now behind us. Yet price rises driven only by a temporary imbalance between the... 21st August 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Which type of property will experience the largest falls? The received wisdom is that, during the current correction, supply shortages will ensure that the price of detached family homes hold up far better than the price of flats, particularly in the... 11th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Is the rise in buyer interest enough to trigger a recovery? Given the severity of the decline in buyer interest over the past year or two, the recent reported increase is just a drop in the ocean. Buyer interest will need to rise significantly further before... 2nd April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus What are auction prices telling us? The price of property sold at auction provides a useful steer on where the true market clearing price might be. It suggests that the market clearing price for residential property might already be... 16th March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus What is the fair value level for house prices? To our minds, the weight of evidence suggests that the fair value level for house prices is currently in the region of £125,000. For context, that figure is some 17% below the Nationwide’s estimate of... 16th February 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Mortgage arrears and possessions to rise to a record high Thanks to sharply rising unemployment, we expect mortgage arrears to surpass the early 1990s highs. While Government pressure on lenders to be more lenient with struggling households and the... 15th January 2009 · 1 min read
