UK Economics Public Finances (Mar.) Total borrowing for the 2021/22 fiscal year overshot the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) March 2022 forecast by some £24bn, rounding out the third-worst year for the public finances on record... 26th April 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Apr.) The fall in the composite PMI in April suggests GDP growth has continued to slow as the cost of living crisis has intensified. But economic activity doesn’t appear to be collapsing. And, beneath the... 22nd April 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Mar.) The hefty fall in retail sales in March marks the second consecutive month of decline and adds to signs that the real wage squeeze is hitting consumer spending. With CPI inflation already at a 30-year... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The rise in CPI inflation in March from 6.2% to a new 30-year high of 7.0% was the sixth upside surprise in as many months and will pile more pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates... 13th April 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Feb./Mar.) The latest batch of data brought some signs of a softening in labour demand, but with the unemployment rate having fallen to pre-COVID levels, job vacancies at a record high and wage growth rising... 12th April 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Feb.) The news that the economy was hardly growing at all in February suggests the economy had a little less momentum in Q1 than we had previously thought, and increases the risk of a contraction in GDP in... 11th April 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics GDP (Q4 Final) The leap in inflation was behind the fall in real household disposable incomes in Q4 of last year. But it is encouraging that households appear willing to reduce their saving rate in order to carry on... 31st March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Feb.) The leap in credit card borrowing in February and smaller increase in household savings could suggest that the cost of living crisis is already starting to bite. But we think it is more likely that... 29th March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Feb.) The small fall in retail sales in February probably had more to do with the shift back towards non-retail spending and the impact of Storm Eunice than it did the cost of living crisis. But, with... 25th March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Mar.) The surprisingly small fall in the composite activity PMI in March suggests that the war in Ukraine didn’t take that much steam out of the economy at the end of the first quarter. That said, the... 24th March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further rise in CPI inflation from 5.5% in January to a new 30-year high of 6.2% in February adds to the pressure on the Chancellor to offset more of the cost of living crisis in today’s fiscal... 23rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Feb.) Notwithstanding the deterioration in the public finances in February, large revisions to the back data mean that borrowing in 2021/22 is on track to undershoot the OBR’s October 2021 forecast by a... 22nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Jan./Feb.) The further fall in the unemployment rate to within a whisker of the pre-pandemic rate will only encourage the Bank of England to raise interest rates on Thursday, probably from 0.50% to 0.75%... 15th March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Jan.) The cost of living crisis and the influence of the war in Ukraine probably means that the 0.8% m/m leap in GDP in January is as good as it gets for this year. Meanwhile, two-thirds of the huge 20% m/m... 11th March 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Jan.) The muted rise in consumer credit in January suggests that the Omicron wave was still prompting households to exercise caution at the start of this year. With interest rates rising and the cost of... 1st March 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Jan.) Public sector net borrowing was in surplus in January as the figures were flattered by the usual bump from higher income tax receipts. Nonetheless, it was a smaller surplus than the Office for Budget... 22nd February 2022 · 3 mins read
