UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s punchy flash PMIs provide even more evidence that the economy has rebounded swiftly after the hit from Omicron. And beneath the headline numbers, there are tentative but encouraging signs... 21st February 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Jan.) A solid rebound in retail sales in January suggests the hit to activity from Omicron was smaller and shorter than previously thought. Even so, the cost of living crisis will restrain retail sales this... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Jan.) The rise in CPI inflation in January from 5.4% to a new 30-year high of 5.5%, the latest rise in oil prices and the new item weights mean that we now think CPI inflation will rise to a peak of 7.9% in... 16th February 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Dec./Jan.) Employment has recouped the falls after the furlough scheme, the unemployment rate has fallen to pre-COVID levels, job vacancies are at a record high and wage growth is rising. That’s a recipe for... 15th February 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics GDP (Dec. & Q4) When combined with the CPI inflation rate of 5.4%, the 0.2% m/m fall in GDP in December meant that the economy experienced a taste of stagflation at the end of last year. As it was driven by the... 11th February 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Dec.) The decent rise in consumer credit in December suggests that, although consumers exercised a touch more caution as Omicron COVID-19 cases surged at the end of last year, the economy didn’t collapse... 1st February 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Dec.) Stronger tax revenues were just enough to offset big rises in debt interest costs in December. But we don’t expect this to last: further rises in inflation will mean borrowing soon overshoots the OBR... 25th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jan.) The third consecutive decline in the composite PMI indicates that the Omicron variant weighed further on activity in January. But the recent fall in COVID-19 cases, relaxation of restrictions and... 24th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Dec.) The fall in retail sales volumes in December was bigger than expected and supports our view that the Omicron outbreak in the run-up to Christmas may have dragged down GDP by 0.5% m/m, if not more. 21st January 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Dec.) After rising from 5.1% in November to 5.4% in December, CPI inflation is now further above the Bank of England’s target than at any point since the UK first adopted an inflation target in October 1992... 19th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Nov./Dec.) The labour market appears to have tightened after the end of the furlough scheme and at the start of the Omicron wave. So even though real wages are now falling and will decline further, we still... 18th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Nov.) Although the effects of the Omicron COVID-19 wave will probably mean that the economy falls back below its pre-pandemic peak by January after having surpassed it for the first time in November, that... 14th January 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Nov.) The healthy rise in consumer credit in November adds to evidence that economic activity strengthened in the middle of Q4. But that feels like a distant memory now. Against a backdrop of surging COVID... 4th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics GDP (Q3 2nd Estimate) Today’s release indicates the economy had a bit less momentum in Q3 than we had previously thought. And, with early signs the Omicron variant has hit activity, growth is sure to have slowed further in... 22nd December 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Nov.) The rise in government borrowing in November suggests the public finances could be already starting to feel the strain from higher spending on NHS Test & Trace and booster vaccines. Now that tighter... 21st December 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The strong growth in retail sales in November feels like a bit of a consolation prize for retailers who are now once again facing a difficult Christmas in light of the rapidly worsening Omicron... 17th December 2021 · 2 mins read