UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jul.) The second consecutive decline in the flash composite PMI in July came as no surprise to us as we expected the pace of the economic recovery to naturally slow after the big gains following the... 23rd July 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Jun.) The underlying trend in retail sales volumes is a bit weaker than the 0.5% m/m rise in June suggests. And other evidence indicates that the resurgence in the virus and the “pingdemic” may have taken... 23rd July 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Jun.) June’s public finances figures provided further evidence that the strong economic recovery is feeding through into lower government borrowing. So despite rising debt service costs, we still think that... 21st July 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (May/Jun.) May’s figures paint a picture of a labour market well on its way to recovery and will further fuel concerns about labour shortages and the possible boost to inflation from higher wage growth. But past... 15th July 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Jun.) The rise in CPI inflation from 2.1% in May to 2.5% in June was smaller than the leap in US inflation to 5.4% released yesterday, but we think the gap between the two will shrink as inflation in the UK... 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Monthly GDP & International Trade (May) The easing in the pace of the economic recovery in May suggests that GDP is now more likely to return to the February 2020 pre-pandemic peak in October rather than in August. The bigger point, though... 9th July 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics GDP (Q1 Final) The small downward revision to Q1 GDP growth probably won’t stop the economy from rising back to its pre-pandemic peak in the coming months. And the larger-than-expected rebound in the household... 30th June 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (May) The signs that households have started to borrow again provide us with confidence that May’s surprise fall in retail sales was a result of a shift in spending from retailers to other areas as the... 29th June 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jun.) The fall in the flash composite PMI from a record high of 62.9 in May to 61.7 in June indicates that the pace of the recovery may have peaked. That suggests the monthly rises in GDP will ease back... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (May) May’s public finances figures suggest the strong economic recovery is starting to feed through into lower government borrowing. This reinforces our view that the tax hikes and spending cuts that most... 22nd June 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (May) Rather than suggest the economic recovery is already spluttering, the decline in retail sales in May is probably just a result of the reopening of indoor hospitality in mid-May prompting households to... 18th June 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (May) With businesses having raised their prices by more than we expected once they reopened after COVID-19 lockdowns ended, we now think CPI inflation will rise to a peak of 2.9% later this year compared... 16th June 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Apr./May) Another strong set of labour market figures released this morning will feed concerns about labour shortages and the possible impact on inflation of higher wage growth. But the level of employment is... 15th June 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Apr.) The jump in GDP in April was another sign that consumers are raring to spend as the economy reopens. And all the early indicators suggest that GDP growth was strong in May as well. As such, our... 11th June 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Apr.) April’s money and credit data suggests that consumers were still wary about taking on any additional debt. But even if consumers’ willingness to borrow remains limited, they have enough firepower to... 2nd June 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Apr.) April’s public finances figures showed that the government’s financial position isn’t as bad as the Office for Budget Responsibility predicted only two months ago, reinforcing our view that the tax... 25th May 2021 · 3 mins read
