Notwithstanding the deterioration in the public finances in February, large revisions to the back data mean that borrowing in 2021/22 is on track to undershoot the OBR’s October 2021 forecast by a huge £23bn. Even so, we suspect the sharper rise in debt interest costs in February than many expected may embolden the Chancellor to keep a fairly tight grip on the public finances in tomorrow’s Spring Statement.
Long Run Outlook Drop-In (23 March, 11:00 EDT/15:00 GMT): What will be the lasting impacts of the war in Ukraine? What legacies will the pandemic leave? What does a future of higher inflation mean for economies and markets? Neil Shearing hosts this special discussion with senior economists about the long-term investing outlook on Wednesday. Register here.
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