UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Dec.) The fall in the composite PMI in December doesn’t come as much of a surprise given the surge in cases of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. But it was much bigger than expected, and shows that caution... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Nov.) Inflation is close to being further above the target than at any point since the UK started targeting inflation in October 1992. This makes tomorrow’s interest rate decision look closer, but on... 15th December 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Oct./Nov.) Even though the fallout after the furlough scheme was smaller and shorter than the Bank of England had feared, concerns over the deteriorating COVID-19 situation will probably prevent it from raising... 14th December 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Oct.) The news that the economy was hardly growing at all before Omicron means it is touch-and-go whether it will grow a bit in December or shrink a bit. Against that background, we doubt the Bank of... 10th December 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Oct.) The rise in consumer credit in October adds to evidence that economic activity fared well at the start of Q4. But that no longer offers much comfort in light of the discovery of the new Omicron... 29th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Nov.) The composite activity PMIs hardly changed in November as the economy held up fairly well despite continued supply disruptions and shortages. Meanwhile, signs that price pressures continued to grow... 23rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Oct.) The rebound in retail sales in October adds to the evidence that activity held up well in October and will raise expectations that the Bank of England will hike interest rates from 0.10% to 0.25% in... 19th November 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Oct.) The winding down of the furlough scheme helped to bring down public sector net borrowing in October. But we doubt that the public finances will get much help from faster GDP growth in the near term. 19th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) When coupled with yesterday’s decent labour market release, the bigger-than-expected leap in CPI inflation in October makes an interest rate hike in December even more likely. That said, we still... 17th November 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Sep./Oct.) This labour market release is the first of two before the Bank of England’s December policy meeting and it suggests that the labour market remained tight after the furlough scheme ended. If the story... 16th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics GDP (Sep. & Q3) The economy regained some momentum in September, but continued shortages and the drag on real incomes from higher utility prices probably mean it will soon fizzle out. That’s one reason why we doubt... 11th November 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Sep.) The tepid rise in consumer credit lends support to our view that economic growth slowed to little more than a crawl in September. Against the backdrop of rising COVID-19 cases and higher inflation, we... 29th October 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Sep.) & Flash PMIs (Oct.) The fifth consecutive fall in retail sales in September, together with signs that non-retail spending was also weak, supports our view that the economic recovery slowed to a crawl last month. But... 22nd October 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Sep.) September’s public finances figures mean that the Chancellor will be able to boast in next Wednesday’s Budget that he has reduced government borrowing much quicker than expected. But we suspect he’ll... 21st October 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Sep.) The dip in CPI inflation in September feels a bit like the lull before the storm as we expect inflation to jump to close to 4.0% in October and to between 4.5% and 5.0% by April next year. As such... 20th October 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Aug.) The 0.4% m/m rise in GDP in August confirms that the rapid gains in output, which in just 16 months lifted GDP from being 25.1% below its February 2020 pre-pandemic peak to 0.8% below, are now behind... 13th October 2021 · 4 mins read
