UK Data Response Labour Market (Jul./Aug.) With further evidence that the weaker economy is leading to a cooling in labour demand, the renewed fall in the unemployment rate to a new 47-year low of 3.6% was driven by a shortfall in labour... 13th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response GDP & International Trade (Jul.) The disappointingly small rebound in real GDP in July suggests that the economy has little momentum and is probably already in recession. The government’s utility price freeze is unlikely to change... 12th September 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Jul.) The decent rise in consumer credit values in July may overstate the current resilience of real consumer spending as credit is being supported by the rapid increases in consumer prices. Either way, as... 30th August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Aug.) With the latest surge in wholesale gas prices set to intensify the cost of living crisis, it is probably only a matter of time before the activity PMIs start ringing the recession alarm bell. We think... 23rd August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Public Finances (Jul.) We doubt the recent resilience in consumer spending will last for much longer. Even so, July’s rise in retail sales provides another reason to think that the Bank of England will raise interest rates... 19th August 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The encouraging evidence that the upward pressure on underlying inflation from global factors has started to ease will be of little comfort to the Bank of England given the signs that this is being... 17th August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jun/Jul.) June’s labour market figures revealed further evidence that the weaker economy is leading to a slightly less tight labour market. That said, by any metric the labour market is still exceptionally... 16th August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics GDP (Jun. & Q2) The 0.6% m/m drop in GDP in June was mostly due to the adverse effect of the extra Jubilee bank holiday. Even so, the GDP figures confirmed that the economy contracted by 0.1% q/q in Q2 as a whole and... 12th August 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Jun.) The chunky increase in unsecured borrowing in June suggests that households are having to rely more on credit due to the cost of living crisis. But households won’t be able to fully offset the hit to... 29th July 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Looser fiscal/tighter monetary mix whoever is the Prime Minister If members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) had hoped that this week's data releases would provide a clear steer on whether to follow other major central banks and raise interest rates by at... 22nd July 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jul.) Spending on travel and leisure is supporting activity and has so far prevented the UK composite flash PMI from joining the euro-zone’s PMI in contraction territory. Perhaps even more encouraging was... 22nd July 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) Although June’s retail sales figures were boosted in some areas by the extra Jubilee bank holiday and dragged down in others, the underlying trend is that the surge in prices is weighing on sales... 22nd July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Jun.) June’s public finances figures provided more evidence that the government’s fiscal position is worse than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted back in March. This may limit the ability... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Jun.) There are some encouraging signs that the upward pressure on underlying inflation from global factors has started to ease. But as it is being replaced by stronger upward pressure from domestic factors... 20th July 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (May/Jun.) The strong rise in the supply of workers in May helped to take some of the heat out of the labour market. Even so, the sharp increase in employment and pick-up in wage growth supports our view that... 19th July 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (May) The recent resilience of GDP to the drag from the high rate of inflation probably won’t last and there is still a big risk that the economy falls into recession. Even so, the surprisingly strong rise... 13th July 2022 · 4 mins read
