UK Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The 0.6% m/m rise in retail sales volumes was larger than both we (0.0% m/m) and the consensus (+0.2% m/m) had expected. Sales volumes were probably supported by the reversal of bank holiday effects... 18th November 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) It’s possible that the big leap in CPI inflation from 10.1% in September to a new 40-year high of 11.1% in October will mark the peak. But core inflation may yet rise further, which is why we think... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Sep./Oct.) September’s labour market figures reveal further signs that the labour market is becoming less tight. That may alleviate some of the pressure on the Bank of England to repeat November’s 75 basis point... 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Sep. & Q3) About half of the 0.6% m/m fall in real GDP in September and half of the 0.2% q/q decline in Q3 as a whole was caused by the one-off reduction in the number of working days due to the extra bank... 11th November 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Sep.) The increase in precautionary household saving in September and weakening demand for credit poses an extra downside risk to our forecast that the economy will contract by 2% during a recession. These... 31st October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Oct.) The decline in the composite flash PMI to 47.2 in October took it further below the boom-bust level of 50.0, placing it deeper into contraction territory. This is consistent with recent data that... 24th October 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Public Finances (Sep.) The weakness in retail sales and overshoot of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) March public borrowing forecast won’t make the next Prime Minister’s task any easier in navigating the... 21st October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The further strengthening in domestic price pressures despite the clear weakening in the economic outlook supports our view that the Bank of England will raise interest rates by 100 basis points, from... 19th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response GDP & International Trade (Aug.) The contraction in real GDP in August won’t ease the jitters in the financial markets at a time when the recent behaviour of politicians and the words of the Governor of the Bank of England are making... 12th October 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Aug./Sep.) While there were tentative signs that the labour market is cooling from the red-hot conditions seen in recent months, the shortfall in labour supply is keeping it exceptionally tight. That will... 11th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Aug.) The surge in interest rate expectations since the Chancellor’s “mini-budget” will sharply raise the cost of borrowing in the economy. We now expect Bank rate to reach a peak of 5.00% which will push... 30th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Q2 Final) The good news is that the economy is not already in recession. The bad news is that contrary to previous thinking, it still hasn’t returned to pre-pandemic levels. It’s the only G7 economy in that... 30th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Sep.) The slip in the composite flash PMI to 48.4 in September took it further below the boom-bust level of 50 and sits comfortably with recent data that suggests the economy is already in a recession. That... 23rd September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Aug.) The public finances figures brought some cheer for the new Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, ahead of his fiscal statement on Friday. That said, the government’s huge fiscal expansion and the weakening... 21st September 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The weakness in August’s retail sales volumes figures suggests that the downward momentum is gathering speed and supports our view that the economy in already in a recession. But that won’t stop the... 16th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) Despite CPI inflation easing from 10.1% in July to 9.9% in August, inflation has not peaked yet. We think CPI inflation will rise to 11.0% later this year and that the tight labour market will keep... 14th September 2022 · 3 mins read
