Latin America Economics Weekly Ocampo, BanRep hawks & Argentina in crisis (again) Colombian President-elect Gustavo Petro’s choice of José Antonio Ocampo as his finance minister provides an early sign that Petro will govern as an economic moderate. Mr Ocampo will also sit on the... 1st July 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Petro reaction, Lula’s plans, hawkish central banks Gustavo Petro’s win in Colombia’s presidential election has caused tremors in the country’s financial markets. While the appointment of a centrist finance minister could help to settle investors’... 24th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico outlook, Brazil GDP, Colombia election Given the Fed’s hawkish shift and the recent sell-off in the Mexican peso, we now think that Banxico will step up the pace of tightening with a 75bp rate hike next week, to 7.75%. Elsewhere, in Brazil... 17th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s IMF review, Mexican industry recovering This week's staff-level agreement between the IMF and Argentina, for the first review of its $44bn deal, gave little assurance that the Fund will knuckle down on the country’s growing inflation and... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Reasons for optimism in Colombia and Brazil? Populist Rodolfo Hernández is now the favourite to become Colombia’s next president and this has buoyed local financial markets this week, but we think that the scope for a further rally is limited... 1st June 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Petrobras debacle, Banxico minutes, Colombia votes The news this week that Brazil’s President Bolsonaro sacked the CEO of oil giant Petrobras, José Mauro Coelho, provides a worrying sign about the direction of policymaking in the run-up to October’s... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s new constitution, Brazil’s improving finances Some of the doubts over Chile’s political system have eased after the Constitutional Convention completed a draft of the new charter, but political risks remain high for now, which may keep the peso... 20th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Hikes, hikes, hikes The hawkish tilt by Mexico ’s central bank at its meeting yesterday, when it raised its raised its policy rate by 50bp (to 7.00%), suggests that Banxico may soon shift its tightening cycle into a... 13th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Inflation alarm bells, Amlo seeks price freeze The rise in inflation to multi-decade highs across much of the region in April is clearly worrying policymakers and, this week, Mexico’s government became the latest to announce measures to cushion... 6th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Petro vs. Gutiérrez This week Colombia's Liberal Party offered its backing to market-friendly Federico Gutiérrez – who currently trails left-wing Gustavo Petro in the polls – ahead of next month's presidential election... 29th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s election race heats up Brazil’s presidential election race has started to take centre stage as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro has narrowed the gap in the polls with front-runner Lula. Investors’ concerns about a shift to looser... 22nd April 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Boric on the backfoot, Argentine inflation concerns The political fight over a fresh round of pension withdrawals in Chile underlines the Boric administration's struggle to wean the economy off accommodative policies. This will heap more pressure on... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Political risks: Peruvian protests & Chile’s constitution The mass protests this week in Peru, triggered by rising inflation, are likely to lead to a further shift towards looser fiscal policy and a larger political risk premium on local financial assets... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central bank hikes and strikes Central banks in Chile and Colombia didn’t hike interest rates as aggressively as had been widely expected this week, but we think that high inflation will, ultimately, lead to more tightening in this... 1st April 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo unnerves, BCB outlook, new FX forecasts Yesterday’s comment by Mexican President López Obrador that Banxico would raise its policy rate by 50bp, four hours before the official decision, is not a big deal in itself. But it adds to the sense... 25th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fed tightening and the fallout for Latin America The US Fed's tightening cycle is unlikely to be a major concern for much of Latin America, although Chile's large current account deficit may become a growing vulnerability. The Fed’s move may also... 18th March 2022 · 7 mins read
