Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) The pick-up in Mexican inflation to 2.8% y/y in May, from 2.2% y/y in April, is unlikely to deter the central bank from continuing its easing cycle. We expect a 50bp rate cut at its meeting later this... 9th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Apr.) The 18.8% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in April was not as calamitous as we and most others had feared, but it still highlights that GDP will fall dramatically in Q2 – perhaps by 10-12%... 3rd June 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q1 2020) The 1.5% q/q fall in Brazilian GDP in Q1 highlights that the economy had slipped into a deep downturn by March, even though the country was slow to impose lockdown measures. And more timely figures... 29th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (May 2020) The fall in Brazilian inflation to just 2.0% y/y in the first half of this month provides plenty of space for Copom to follow up this month’s 75bp interest rate cut with more easing. For now, we have... 26th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May) The larger-than-expected rise in Mexican inflation in the first half of May, to 2.8% (from 2.1% in April), may prompt the central bank to slow the pace of easing (or even pause its cycle) at next... 22nd May 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q1) While Chile’s economy grew strongly in Q1, this was largely due to favourable base effects resulting from strikes in Q4, and hides a sharp deterioration in activity in March. We expect a steep... 18th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Mar.) The 5% y/y drop in Mexican industrial production in March is largely old news, but the breakdown of the headline figure was more noteworthy and suggests that the manufacturing sector has been hit... 12th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) The large fall in Mexican inflation to just 2.2% y/y in April (from 3.2% y/y in March) should embolden the central bank to step up the easing cycle when it meets later this month. We’ve pencilled in a... 7th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1, Prov.) The 1.6% q/q drop in Mexico’s GDP in Q1 was slightly better than many had expected, but the outturn in Q2 is likely to be much worse. We expect an 8% fall in GDP over this year as a whole – one of the... 30th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Apr. 2020) The decline in Brazilian inflation to 2.9% y/y in the first half of April suggests that Copom will be able to lower the Selic rate by an additional 50bp (to 3.25%) next week. The political crisis and... 28th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.) The collapse in Mexican inflation to just 2.1% y/y in the first half of April will give Banxico more space to support the economy. It looks increasingly likely that the central bank will follow up... 23rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Mar. 2020) The larger-than-expected fall in Brazilian inflation, to 3.3% y/y last month, adds to reasons to think that Copom will cut the policy rate by another 50bp (to 3.25%) when it meets in early May. 9th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation in March, to 3.3% y/y, should ease near-term concerns at the central bank about the impact of the fall in the peso on prices. More importantly, with... 7th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Mar. 2020) The further fall in Brazilian inflation in the middle of March will allow the central bank to lower the Selic rate by a further 50bp in the near term. But the scope for aggressive easing is limited. 25th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Mar.) Despite Mexican inflation remaining above target in early March, we think that Banxico will follow up its emergency 50bp rate cut last week with around 200bp of further easing in the coming quarters. 24th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Feb. 2020) The modest decline in Brazilian inflation, to 4.0% y/y, probably gives Copom leeway to lower the Selic rate by 25bp when it meets next week, despite the fall in the real. 11th March 2020 · 2 mins read
