Latin America Data Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (Sep.)

The Brazilian mid-month inflation figure of 3.2% y/y in September leaves the door open to further monetary easing over the coming months. Beyond that, the large output is likely to keep inflation...

24th September 2019 · 2 mins read

Latin America Data Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep.)

Mexican inflation eased very slightly over the first half of September, supporting our view that policymakers at the central bank will cut their key rate from 8.00% to 7.75% on Thursday.

24th September 2019 · 2 mins read

Latin America Data Response

Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.)

The 0.4% m/m fall in Mexican industrial production in July adds to our view that economic activity remains subdued and Banxico will cut interest rates later this month.

11th September 2019 · 2 mins read

Latin America Data Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.)

The sharp drop in Mexican inflation from 3.8% y/y in July to 3.2% y/y in August is likely to be followed by further falls over the rest of the year. That should pave the way for more monetary easing...

9th September 2019 · 2 mins read

Latin America Data Response

Brazil IPCA & Chile CPI (Aug.)

The small rise in Brazilian inflation (to 3.4%y/y in August) is unlikely to trouble policymakers at the central bank. With the headline rate below target and the economy struggling, we expect a 50bp...

6th September 2019 · 2 mins read

Latin America Data Response

Brazil Industrial Production (Jul.)

The surprising 0.3% m/m drop in Brazilian industrial production in July probably seals the deal on a 50bp interest rate cut at the next central bank meeting on 18th September.

3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read

Latin America Data Response

Brazil GDP (Q2 2019)

The surprisingly strong 0.4% q/q rise in Brazilian GDP in Q2 confirms that the extremely weak activity recorded earlier this year was a blip rather than the start of a renewed downturn. But the...

29th August 2019 · 2 mins read

Latin America Data Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (Aug.)

The weaker-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure, of 3.2% y/y, raises the likelihood that Copom will cut the Selic rate by 50bp (rather than 25bp) when it next meets on 18th September.

22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read

Latin America Data Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Aug.)

The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month, to 3.3% y/y, strengthens the case for Banxico to follow up this month’s 25bp interest rate cut with further...

22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read

Latin America Data Response

Chile GDP & Current Account (Q2)

The pick-up in Chilean GDP growth from 1.6% y/y in Q1 to 1.9% y/y in Q2, is likely to mark the beginning of a sustained economic recovery. While GDP growth over this year as a whole is likely to be...

19th August 2019 · 2 mins read

Latin America Data Response

Colombia GDP (Q2 2019)

Colombian GDP growth remained strong in Q2 at 3.0% y/y, and we’ve revised up our forecast for 2019 from 2.0% to 2.8%. But we still think that the consensus forecasts are too optimistic.

15th August 2019 · 2 mins read

Latin America Data Response

Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.)

The stronger-than-expected increase in Mexican industrial production in June, of 1.1% m/m, should provide a strong carryover for Q3. But with the economy still very weak, we remain comfortable with...

9th August 2019 · 2 mins read

Latin America Data Response

Brazil IPCA & Chile CPI (Jul.)

The decline in inflation in Brazil and Chile in July points to further monetary easing, and we currently expect a 25bp interest rate cut in both countries next month. In Brazil, with pension reform...

8th August 2019 · 2 mins read

Latin America Data Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.)

The further fall in Mexican inflation in July, to 3.8% y/y, keeps an interest rate cut at next week’s policy meeting on the table. It will be a close call, but on balance we think the central bank...

8th August 2019 · 2 mins read

Latin America Data Response

Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.)

The 0.6% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in June adds to the evidence that GDP contracted again in the second quarter. We expect a recovery in the second half of the year, but it will be...

1st August 2019 · 2 mins read