Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Aug. 2020) The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 2.3% y/y in the first half August, was relatively modest and we expect the headline rate to remain well below the central bank’s 2020 target of 4% over the... 25th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Aug.) The rise in Mexican inflation to 4.0% in the first half of August, the upper end of Banxico’s target range, will probably prompt the central bank to slow the pace of its easing cycle. But with... 24th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q2 2020) The 13.2% q/q contraction in Chile’s economy in Q2 appears to have been followed by a only a weak rebound in July but, with policymakers finally starting to get a grip on the coronavirus, the recovery... 18th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.) The solid 17.9% m/m rebound in Mexican industrial production in June was largely driven by the reopening of auto factories. While production appears to have strengthened in July, further gains will... 11th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 2.3% y/y in July is unlikely to worry the central bank and, with the economy still very weak, we expect the Selic rate to stay at its current historic low through... 7th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.) The 8.9% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in June and the jump in surveys for July highlight that the sector is recovering surprisingly quickly. But output is still well below its February... 4th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2 Prov.) The 17.3% q/q slump in Mexico’s GDP in Q2 is likely to be one of the largest peak-to-trough falls in the emerging world. With the country still battling with its coronavirus outbreak, and the US... 30th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jul. 2020) The softer-than-expected Brazilian mid-month inflation reading for July, of 2.1% y/y, suggests that there is still scope for another interest rate cut in the current cycle. We expect a 25bp reduction... 24th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul.) We don’t think that the further rise in Mexican inflation to 3.6% y/y in the first half of July will be a major cause for concern for the central bank. Policymakers are likely to focus on the... 23rd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (May) The further fall in Mexico’s industrial production in May reinforces our view that GDP suffered a double-digit slump in Q2 (in q/q terms), and suggests that the recovery is lagging those in the rest... 10th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun.) The further rise in Mexican inflation to 3.3% y/y in June, from 2.8% y/y in May, was largely driven by higher fuel prices. We think this trend has a bit further to run, although it is unlikely to... 9th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (May) Brazil’s industrial sector only recovered a small share of its coronavirus-related losses in May, with continued weakness the auto sector one key factor. While surveys suggest that the data for June... 2nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jun. 2020) Brazil’s broadly steady mid-month inflation reading for June, of 1.9% y/y, masked the fact that a rise in food inflation offset falls in inflation in most other price categories. Weak price pressures... 25th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun.) The rise in Mexican headline inflation to 3.2% y/y in the middle of June will keep policymakers in a cautious mood – something that’s likely to be reflected in the tone of the statement from tomorrow... 24th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.) The 25.1% m/m collapse in Mexico’s industrial production in April suggests that Mexico’s economy suffered a hefty blow in Q2. Although this may mark the bottom for industry, it will add pressure for... 11th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (May 2020) The decline in Brazilian inflation to a multi-decade low of 1.9% y/y in May will give Copom plenty of room to cut interest rates when it meets next week. We’ve pencilled in a 50bp cut at that meeting... 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
